Where the model and the standings disagree most · 2025-26

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do

#32#8 in points#24 by xG-Elo#1

Why the model rates the Boston Bruins lower See the full chart

Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Scores

1:00 PM ETWin chanceNJDNew Jersey Devils47%WSHWashington Capitals53%1:00 PMNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 42–37–3 · rated #947%53%Washington CapitalsWSH · 43–30–9 · rated #22
3:30 PM ETWin chanceCARCarolina Hurricanes53%WPGWinnipeg Jets47%3:30 PMCarolina HurricanesCAR · 53–22–7 · rated #153%47%Winnipeg JetsWPG · 35–35–12 · rated #21
4:00 PM ETWin chanceVANVancouver Canucks36%TBLTampa Bay Lightning64%4:00 PMVancouver CanucksVAN · 25–49–8 · rated #3236%64%Tampa Bay LightningTBL · 50–26–6 · rated #6
6:00 PM ETWin chanceSEASeattle Kraken41%FLAFlorida Panthers59%6:00 PMSeattle KrakenSEA · 34–37–11 · rated #2741%59%Florida PanthersFLA · 40–38–4 · rated #19
7:00 PM ETWin chanceNYINew York Islanders49%TORToronto Maple Leafs51%7:00 PMNew York IslandersNYI · 43–34–5 · rated #2549%51%Toronto Maple LeafsTOR · 32–36–14 · rated #31
7:00 PM ETWin chanceBUFBuffalo Sabres46%MTLMontréal Canadiens54%7:00 PMBuffalo SabresBUF · 50–23–9 · rated #1346%54%Montréal CanadiensMTL · 48–24–10 · rated #18
7:00 PM ETWin chanceSJSSan Jose Sharks42%DETDetroit Red Wings58%7:00 PMSan Jose SharksSJS · 39–35–8 · rated #2642%58%Detroit Red WingsDET · 41–31–10 · rated #16
7:00 PM ETWin chanceOTTOttawa Senators49%PHIPhiladelphia Flyers51%7:00 PMOttawa SenatorsOTT · 44–27–11 · rated #249%51%Philadelphia FlyersPHI · 43–27–12 · rated #5
7:00 PM ETWin chanceNYRNew York Rangers40%CBJColumbus Blue Jackets60%7:00 PMNew York RangersNYR · 34–39–9 · rated #2840%60%Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ · 40–30–12 · rated #11
7:00 PM ETWin chanceDALDallas Stars52%CHIChicago Blackhawks48%7:00 PMDallas StarsDAL · 50–20–12 · rated #1052%48%Chicago BlackhawksCHI · 29–39–14 · rated #30
8:00 PM ETWin chanceSTLSt. Louis Blues47%NSHNashville Predators53%8:00 PMSt. Louis BluesSTL · 37–33–12 · rated #2047%53%Nashville PredatorsNSH · 38–34–10 · rated #23
9:00 PM ETWin chanceBOSBoston Bruins42%LAKLos Angeles Kings58%9:00 PMBoston BruinsBOS · 45–27–10 · rated #2442%58%Los Angeles KingsLAK · 35–27–20 · rated #14
10:00 PM ETWin chanceEDMEdmonton Oilers47%UTAUtah Mammoth53%10:00 PMEdmonton OilersEDM · 41–30–11 · rated #747%53%Utah MammothUTA · 43–33–6 · rated #12
10:00 PM ETWin chancePITPittsburgh Penguins40%VGKVegas Golden Knights60%10:00 PMPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 41–25–16 · rated #1540%60%Vegas Golden KnightsVGK · 39–26–17 · rated #4

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2025-26 regular-season totals

League leaders

Counted from the 2025-26 regular season, with the games each player has played.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

2025-26 totals 2026-27 projected

What the model sees — not what happened

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do

Boston Bruins (BOS): #8 in points, #24 by xG-Elo · gaps of 7+ spots

NJD+12

VGK+9

EDM+7

OTT+7

CBJ+6

FLA+6

LAK+6

PHI+6

WPG+5

UTA+3

NYR+2

STL+2

ANA+1

CAR+1

CHI+1

CGY0

DET0

NSH0

SEA0

VAN0

MIN−1

TBL−1

COL−2

SJS−2

TOR−3

PIT−5

NYI−6

DAL−7

BUF−9

WSH−10

MTL−12

BOS−16

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.

Positive means the model ranks a club higher than its points do.

Explore BOS All 32 clubs

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Measured against each player’s position rather than raw goals minus xG, so forwards and defencemen share one scale. Projected at the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured