Where the model and the standings disagree most · 2025-26
The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).
2026-27 full-season pace
Projected over each club’s full 2026-27 regular season, assuming the player plays every game. The sample is the games the rate rests on.
Boston Bruins (BOS): #8 in points, #24 by xG-Elo · gaps of 7+ spots
Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.
Measured against each player’s position rather than raw goals minus xG, so forwards and defencemen share one scale. Projected at the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured
