Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

EDM Edmonton Oilers

@ANAAnaheim Ducks

Last gameApr 30 · 10:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates EDM higher than the standings do

In points

#14/32

what happened

By our rating

#7/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 41 wins, 30 regulation losses, 11 overtime losses
Points: 93
Points rank: 14/32
Goal diff: +13

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1524
League rank: 7/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LApr 30@ANA2–5

WApr 28vsANA4–1

OTLApr 26@ANA3–4OT

LApr 24@ANA4–7

LApr 22vsANA4–6

WApr 20vsANA4–3

WApr 16vsVAN6–1

OTLApr 13vsCOL1–2SO

LApr 11@LAK0–1

WApr 8@SJS5–2

Current roster · per-game rates

30 skaters · 4 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Connor McDavid	97	1.63	0.50	1.13	3.55	468
Leon Draisaitl	29	1.47	0.58	0.89	2.95	458
Zach Hyman	18	0.81	0.49	0.32	2.94	440
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	93	0.80	0.28	0.52	1.99	456
Aku Raty	85	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.00	1
Matt Savoie	22	0.43	0.20	0.23	1.67	93
Vasily Podkolzin	92	0.41	0.19	0.22	1.51	331
Kasperi Kapanen	42	0.38	0.17	0.21	1.48	351
Jason Dickinson	16	0.31	0.15	0.17	1.18	349
Mathieu Joseph	21	0.28	0.07	0.20	1.06	313
Connor Clattenburg	64	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.60	5
Quinn Hutson	23	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.70	6
Colton Dach	34	0.22	0.08	0.15	0.96	91
Max Jones	46	0.22	0.11	0.11	1.13	170
Mattias Janmark	13	0.22	0.06	0.16	0.73	379
Josh Samanski	81	0.21	0.10	0.10	0.38	29
Trent Frederic	10	0.21	0.10	0.10	1.21	401
Isaac Howard	53	0.17	0.07	0.10	1.24	29
Roby Jarventie	15	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.68	10

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Evan Bouchard	2	1.01	0.22	0.79	2.68	489
Mattias Ekholm	14	0.50	0.10	0.40	1.80	434
Jake Walman	96	0.44	0.13	0.31	1.98	323
Ryan Shea	6	0.34	0.06	0.28	0.80	156
Shakir Mukhamadullin	85	0.25	0.09	0.16	0.99	83
Connor Murphy	5	0.23	0.07	0.17	1.04	337
Ty Emberson	49	0.17	0.03	0.15	0.71	193
Spencer Stastney	24	0.15	0.03	0.12	0.80	120
Joshua Brown	44	0.14	0.04	0.10	0.89	183
Riley Stillman	61	0.11	0.02	0.09	0.57	111
Alec Regula	75	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.64	48

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Frederik Andersen	30	.8941	2.54	21.4	24.0	60:23	207
Matt Tomkins	90	.8919	3.33	27.5	30.8	60:02	6
Tristan Jarry	35	.8930	2.86	23.8	26.7	54:54	227
Devon Levi	27	.8890	3.22	25.8	29.1	55:31	39

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Matt SavoieC82 gp$0.89M1 yrRFA3741.7

Vasily PodkolzinR82 gp$2.95M3 yrsUFA3712.5

Connor McDavidC82 gp$12.50M2 yrsUFA13811.0

Mathieu JosephR51 gp$1.00M1 yrUFA1111.0

Ryan Nugent-HopkinsC72 gp$5.13M3 yrsUFA5610.9

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 30 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.