VGK Vegas Golden Knights

vsCARCarolina Hurricanes

Last gameJun 14 · 8:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates VGK higher than the standings do

In points

#13/32

what happened

By our rating

#4/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 39 wins, 26 regulation losses, 17 overtime losses
Points: 95
Points rank: 13/32
Goal diff: +15

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1550
League rank: 4/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LJun 14vsCAR0–3

LJun 11@CAR2–4

LJun 9vsCAR3–5

WJun 6vsCAR5–4OT

OTLJun 4@CAR3–4OT

WJun 2@CAR5–4

WMay 26vsCOL2–1

WMay 24vsCOL5–3

WMay 22@COL3–1

WMay 20@COL4–2

Current roster · per-game rates

29 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Jack Eichel	9	1.15	0.33	0.81	3.30	377
Mitch Marner	93	1.13	0.33	0.80	2.17	443
Mark Stone	61	1.03	0.39	0.64	2.12	318
Tomas Hertl	48	0.72	0.32	0.40	2.35	410
Ivan Barbashev	49	0.68	0.27	0.41	1.58	471
William Karlsson	71	0.62	0.25	0.36	2.08	341
Braeden Bowman	42	0.47	0.15	0.33	1.36	55
Brett Howden	21	0.45	0.27	0.18	1.34	373
Victor Olofsson	95	0.43	0.20	0.23	1.86	341
Tanner Laczynski	28	0.33	0.04	0.29	0.88	51
Alexander Holtz	10	0.29	0.12	0.17	1.26	191
Nic Dowd	26	0.29	0.12	0.17	0.98	392
Marc Gatcomb	17	0.17	0.10	0.07	1.10	88
Jonas Rondbjerg	46	0.12	0.02	0.10	1.13	80
Kai Uchacz	77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67	3
Raphael Lavoie	36	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.83	17

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Shea Theodore	27	0.68	0.15	0.53	1.97	378
Alex Pietrangelo	7	0.52	0.08	0.43	1.96	326
Rasmus Andersson	4	0.49	0.15	0.34	2.04	435
Lukas Cormier	51	0.50	0.00	0.50	1.50	2
Noah Hanifin	15	0.44	0.08	0.36	1.85	445
Jeremy Davies	84	0.25	0.00	0.25	0.88	7
Parker Wotherspoon	29	0.29	0.03	0.26	0.84	204
Brayden McNabb	3	0.27	0.06	0.21	1.16	438
Dylan Coghlan	52	0.17	0.05	0.12	1.22	100
Jeremy Lauzon	5	0.15	0.02	0.13	1.04	329
Jaycob Megna	88	0.09	0.01	0.08	0.70	154
Ville Heinola	14	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.95	45
Adam Ginning	73	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.44	16

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Adin Hill	33	.8953	2.60	22.2	24.8	57:12	194
Carter Hart	79	.9032	2.67	24.7	27.4	59:07	166
Carl Lindbom	30	.8730	3.00	20.6	23.6	60:05	8

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Parker WotherspoonD80 gp$0.50M1 yrUFA3060.0

Braeden BowmanR54 gp$0.91M1 yrRFA2628.5

Victor OlofssonR78 gp$1.64M1 yrUFA3118.9

Ivan BarbashevL82 gp$5.00M2 yrsUFA6112.2

Alexander HoltzR28 gp$0.84M1 yrRFA910.8

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Jun 14 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.