Tue, Jan 5, 2027

Scores

7:00 PM ETWin chanceSTLSt. Louis Blues38%CARCarolina Hurricanes62%7:00 PMSt. Louis BluesSTL · 37–33–12Rated #20STL 38%62% CARCarolina HurricanesCAR · 53–22–7Rated #1
7:00 PM ETWin chanceNYRNew York Rangers40%CBJColumbus Blue Jackets60%7:00 PMNew York RangersNYR · 34–39–9Rated #28NYR 40%60% CBJColumbus Blue JacketsCBJ · 40–30–12Rated #11
7:30 PM ETWin chanceBUFBuffalo Sabres48%BOSBoston Bruins52%7:30 PMBuffalo SabresBUF · 50–23–9Rated #13BUF 48%52% BOSBoston BruinsBOS · 45–27–10Rated #24
7:30 PM ETWin chanceEDMEdmonton Oilers50%NSHNashville Predators50%7:30 PMEdmonton OilersEDM · 41–30–11Rated #7EDM 50%50% NSHNashville PredatorsNSH · 38–34–10Rated #23
8:00 PM ETWin chanceFLAFlorida Panthers50%CGYCalgary Flames50%8:00 PMFlorida PanthersFLA · 40–38–4Rated #19FLA 50%50% CGYCalgary FlamesCGY · 34–39–9Rated #29
9:00 PM ETWin chanceOTTOttawa Senators51%UTAUtah Mammoth49%9:00 PMOttawa SenatorsOTT · 44–27–11Rated #2OTT 51%49% UTAUtah MammothUTA · 43–33–6Rated #12
9:00 PM ETWin chanceNYINew York Islanders49%VANVancouver Canucks51%9:00 PMNew York IslandersNYI · 43–34–5Rated #25NYI 49%51% VANVancouver CanucksVAN · 25–49–8Rated #32
9:40 PM ETWin chanceTBLTampa Bay Lightning53%SEASeattle Kraken47%9:40 PMTampa Bay LightningTBL · 50–26–6Rated #6TBL 53%47% SEASeattle KrakenSEA · 34–37–11Rated #27
10:00 PM ETWin chanceMINMinnesota Wild46%ANAAnaheim Ducks54%10:00 PMMinnesota WildMIN · 46–24–12Rated #8MIN 46%54% ANAAnaheim DucksANA · 43–33–6Rated #17

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

What the model sees · 2025-26 · 32 clubs · rank gap in spots

The model’s rating against the standings

The Boston Bruins (BOS) are 8th in points. The model ranks them 24th.

NJD+12

VGK+9

EDM+7

OTT+7

DAL−7

BUF−9

WSH−10

MTL−12

BOS−16

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.

Drawn: the 9 clubs 7+ spots apart, of 32.

Why the model rates the Boston Bruins lower All 32 clubs’ gaps

How the gap is measured — rank in points minus rank by xG-Elo; positive means the model ranks a club higher than its points do

Each bar is one club: its rank by xG-Elo, the model’s rating built from the chances a club makes and allows, against its rank in the standings. #1 is the top of each ranking, so the Boston Bruins, #8 in points and #24 by xG-Elo, have a gap of 8 − 24 = −16.

Green bars are clubs the model ranks higher than their points; red bars, lower. The words carry the direction too, so the colour is never the only sign.

2026-27 full-season pace

League leaders

Jacob Melanson leads with 419.9 projected hits from a limited sample of 37 games, ahead of Kiefer Sherwood at 402.7.

Full projections board

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Limited sample means under 41 games, half a season. The pace stretches that short record across a full season, so it rests on limited evidence and can move a long way as games are added.

How the leaders are counted — a rate carried across every game of the club’s 2026-27 regular season, not a forecast of games he will play

A projection is the player’s recent rate per game multiplied by his club’s full schedule, assuming he plays every game. The sample is the games the rate rests on, and a dotted bar marks a projection where a solid one marks a count.

Full projections board

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Transaction
Anaheim Ducks sign D Tristan Luneau to 6-year, $43.2 million extension after just 14 NHL games (external site)
Associated Press via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 4:06 PM ET
In this story: Tristan Luneau, Anaheim Ducks
Lineup
Penguins Assign Forward To Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (external site)
The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 3:32 PM ET
In this story: Rutger McGroarty, Pittsburgh Penguins
Lineup
Blackhawks Vs Mammoth: Projected Lineup, How To Watch, & More Ahead Of Game 2 (external site)
The Hockey News - Chicago Blackhawks via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 12:01 PM ET
In this story: Chicago Blackhawks, Utah Mammoth

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured