Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

BOS Boston Bruins

vsBUFBuffalo Sabres

Last gameMay 1 · 7:30 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

BOS's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#8/32

what happened

By our rating

#24/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-16

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 45 wins, 27 regulation losses, 10 overtime losses
Points: 100
Points rank: 8/32
Goal diff: +22

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1480
League rank: 24/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LMay 1vsBUF1–4

WApr 28@BUF2–1OT

LApr 26vsBUF1–6

LApr 23vsBUF1–3

WApr 21@BUF4–2

LApr 19@BUF3–4

WApr 14vsNJD4–0

WApr 12@CBJ3–2

LApr 11vsTBL1–2

OTLApr 7@CAR5–6OT

Current roster · per-game rates

32 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
David Pastrnak	88	1.28	0.47	0.81	3.82	428
Pavel Zacha	18	0.72	0.29	0.43	1.70	416
Morgan Geekie	39	0.72	0.40	0.32	1.99	408
Elias Lindholm	28	0.65	0.25	0.41	1.88	419
JJ Peterka	77	0.62	0.30	0.32	2.06	326
Casey Mittelstadt	11	0.58	0.20	0.39	1.31	371
Fraser Minten	93	0.38	0.19	0.19	1.36	113
Matthew Poitras	51	0.37	0.10	0.27	1.17	69
Alex Steeves	21	0.35	0.19	0.15	1.26	59
Marat Khusnutdinov	92	0.32	0.14	0.18	0.83	174
Lukas Reichel	75	0.29	0.11	0.19	1.03	199
Michael Eyssimont	81	0.27	0.13	0.15	1.90	279
Sean Kuraly	52	0.26	0.09	0.17	1.26	380
Tanner Jeannot	84	0.26	0.10	0.16	1.04	374
James Hagens	44	0.20	0.00	0.20	1.00	5
Mark Kastelic	47	0.24	0.12	0.12	1.15	293
Riley Duran	62	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.50	2
Brendan Gaunce	50	0.20	0.07	0.13	1.12	96
Ivan Ivan	82	0.17	0.09	0.09	0.72	49
Brian Halonen	48	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.52	19

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Charlie McAvoy	73	0.72	0.14	0.58	1.75	370
Hampus Lindholm	27	0.40	0.08	0.32	1.54	338
Mason Lohrei	6	0.37	0.08	0.28	1.04	205
Frederic Brunet	59	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00	1
Nikita Zadorov	91	0.27	0.05	0.22	1.32	424
Billy Sweezey	58	0.11	0.00	0.11	0.33	9
Henri Jokiharju	20	0.27	0.05	0.22	1.07	297
Jordan Harris	43	0.23	0.06	0.17	0.82	173
Jonathan Aspirot	45	0.22	0.04	0.18	0.78	67
Will Borgen	17	0.21	0.06	0.15	0.97	373
Connor Clifton	75	0.18	0.03	0.14	0.85	353
Maxence Guenette	—	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.93	8

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Michael DiPietro	80	.9388	0.18	2.7	2.9	9:04	2
Jiri Patera	30	.8683	4.68	30.9	35.5	54:55	9
Jeremy Swayman	1	.9058	2.69	25.8	28.5	58:24	260

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Fraser MintenC82 gp$0.88M1 yrRFA3539.8

Marat KhusnutdinovC77 gp$0.93M1 yrRFA3335.7

Jonathan AspirotD61 gp$0.89M2 yrsUFA1314.6

Mark KastelicC82 gp$1.57M2 yrsUFA2214.0

Pavel ZachaC78 gp$4.75M1 yrUFA6513.7

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 1 · modeled projections

0 PPP · sorted by projection

No PPP lines were captured for this game.