Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

FLA Florida Panthers

vsDETDetroit Red Wings

Last gameApr 15 · 7:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates FLA higher than the standings do

In points

#25/32

what happened

By our rating

#19/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 40 wins, 38 regulation losses, 4 overtime losses
Points: 84
Points rank: 25/32
Goal diff: −25

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1497
League rank: 19/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

WApr 15vsDET8–1

WApr 13vsNYR3–2

WApr 11@TOR6–2

LApr 9@OTT1–5

OTLApr 7@MTL3–4SO

LApr 5@PIT2–5

LApr 4@PIT4–9

WApr 2vsBOS2–1

WMar 31vsOTT6–3

LMar 29@NYR1–3

Current roster · per-game rates

35 skaters · 2 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Matthew Tkachuk	19	1.11	0.40	0.71	3.04	403
Aleksander Barkov	16	1.05	0.31	0.74	2.45	353
Sam Reinhart	13	0.98	0.49	0.49	2.70	461
Brad Marchand	63	0.91	0.41	0.49	2.61	396
Brady Tkachuk	8	0.89	0.39	0.50	3.91	384
Carter Verhaeghe	23	0.76	0.34	0.43	2.72	471
Sam Bennett	9	0.73	0.35	0.38	2.81	427
Anton Lundell	15	0.62	0.23	0.38	2.05	437
Eetu Luostarinen	27	0.42	0.15	0.28	1.35	468
Sandis Vilmanis	95	0.26	0.16	0.11	0.79	19
Lars Eller	20	0.26	0.10	0.15	1.24	412
Cole Reinhardt	29	0.24	0.14	0.10	0.82	77
Cole Schwindt	79	0.21	0.11	0.11	0.80	79
MacKenzie Entwistle	44	0.17	0.07	0.09	0.87	188
John Beecher	17	0.17	0.07	0.10	0.80	177
Sam Lafferty	18	0.17	0.09	0.08	0.78	314
Garnet Hathaway	21	0.17	0.08	0.09	0.91	396
Angus Crookshank	28	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.89	29
Jonah Gadjovich	12	0.15	0.07	0.08	0.86	185
Bokondji Imama	14	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.60	33
Jack Devine	38	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	6

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Marek Alscher	4	0.75	0.00	0.75	1.50	4
Seth Jones	3	0.56	0.14	0.42	1.95	355
Aaron Ekblad	5	0.45	0.08	0.37	1.69	384
Gustav Forsling	42	0.39	0.08	0.31	1.82	471
Ludvig Jansson	54	0.25	0.00	0.25	0.75	4
Mikulas Hovorka	96	0.25	0.00	0.25	0.75	4
Uvis Balinskis	26	0.25	0.08	0.17	1.18	161
Radko Gudas	6	0.22	0.03	0.19	1.17	384
Niko Mikkola	77	0.20	0.06	0.15	1.11	426
Donovan Sebrango	73	0.19	0.00	0.19	0.77	44
Dmitry Kulikov	7	0.17	0.04	0.13	0.91	361
Casey Fitzgerald	4	0.13	0.00	0.13	0.73	65
Alexander Petrovic	36	0.16	0.04	0.13	0.98	85
Tobias Bjornfot	22	0.14	0.06	0.08	0.67	117

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Jacob Markstrom	25	.8940	2.76	23.3	26.1	58:40	280
Akira Schmid	40	.8973	2.35	20.5	22.9	55:07	92

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Cole ReinhardtL59 gp$0.81M1 yrUFA1518.5

Lars EllerC68 gp$0.85M1 yrUFA1517.6

Uvis BalinskisD54 gp$0.88M2 yrsUFA1517.1

Alexander PetrovicD54 gp$0.88M2 yrsUFA1011.4

Eetu LuostarinenC73 gp$3.00M9 yrsUFA3311.0

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 15 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.