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Where the model and the standings disagree most · 2025-26

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do

Why the model rates the Boston Bruins lower See the full chart

Tue, Oct 27, 2026

Scores

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 full-season pace

League leaders

Projected over each club’s full 2026-27 regular season, assuming the player plays every game. The sample is the games the rate rests on.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
2025-26 totals2026-27 projected
  1. 1Jacob MelansonSEA · R · 37-game sample428.4projected hits
  2. 2Kiefer SherwoodSJS · L · 267-game sample404.9 projected hits
  3. 3Yakov TreninMIN · C · 420-game sample345.1 projected hits
  4. 4Jeremy LauzonVGK · D · 329-game sample327.1 projected hits
  5. 5Marc GatcombVGK · C · 88-game sample323.6 projected hits
Full projections board

Injuries, lineups and trades · newest first

News

Headlines from Yahoo Sports and ESPN, shown as published, each linking to the publisher’s full report.

  1. Lineup

    Florida Panthers Assigned A Slew Of Players To The Charlotte Checkers (external site)

    The Hockey News - Florida Panthers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Florida Panthers

  2. Trade

    Hurricanes' repeat bid, superstar trade requests, who will win the Stanley Cup and other 2026-27 NHL season storylines (external site)

    Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Carolina Hurricanes

  3. Trade

    A Hurricanes Trade For Connor Hellebuyck Reportedly Could Depend On The Blues And Alexander Nikishin (external site)

    The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Connor Hellebuyck, Alexander Nikishin, Carolina Hurricanes, St. Louis Blues

  4. Lineup

    Aydar Suniev Didn’t Make the Flames, But Patience Could Pay Off (external site)

    The Hockey News - Calgary Flames via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Aydar Suniev, Calgary Flames

  5. Injury

    Flames Set Opening Night Roster With Huberdeau on IR, Suniev Sent to AHL (external site)

    The Hockey News - Calgary Flames via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Calgary Flames

What the model sees — not what happened

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do

Boston Bruins (BOS): #8 in points, #24 by xG-Elo · gaps of 7+ spots

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.
All 32 clubs

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27
What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Measured against each player’s position rather than raw goals minus xG, so forwards and defencemen share one scale. Projected at the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured