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Tue, Dec 8, 2026

Scores

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

What the model sees · 2025-26 · 32 clubs · rank gap in spots

The model’s rating against the standings

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do.

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.

Drawn: the 9 clubs 7+ spots apart, of 32.

Boston Bruins (BOS): #8 in points, #24 by xG-Elo

Why the model rates the Boston Bruins lower All 32 clubs’ gaps
How the gap is measured — rank in points minus rank by xG-Elo; positive means the model ranks a club higher than its points do

Each bar is one club: its rank by xG-Elo, the model’s rating built from the chances a club makes and allows, against its rank in the standings. #1 is the top of each ranking, so the Boston Bruins, #8 in points and #24 by xG-Elo, have a gap of 8 − 24 = −16.

Green bars are clubs the model ranks higher than their points; red bars, lower. The words carry the direction too, so the colour is never the only sign.

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Counted from the 2026-27 regular season, with the games each player has played.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected
  1. 1Evan BouchardEDM · D · 1 game5points
  2. 2Jack EichelVGK · C · 1 game3 points
  3. 3William NylanderTOR · R · 1 game2 points
  4. 4Paul CotterVAN · L · 1 game2 points
  5. 5Vasily PodkolzinEDM · R · 1 game2 points

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Tyler Tucker Undergoes Surgery On Right Knee, Will Be Re-Evaluated In Six Weeks (external site)

    The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Tyler Tucker

  2. Transaction

    Avalanche give coach Jared Bednar new contract, avoid lame-duck season (external site)

    USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Colorado Avalanche

  3. Transaction

    Red Wings' Simon Edvinsson heads to Sweden as he awaits new contract (external site)

    USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Simon Edvinsson, Detroit Red Wings

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Measured against each player’s position rather than raw goals minus xG, so forwards and defencemen share one scale. Projected at the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured