Thu, Jan 14, 2027

Scores

7:00 PM ETWin chanceDALDallas Stars48%BOSBoston Bruins52%7:00 PMDallas StarsDAL · 50–20–12Rated #10DAL 48%52% BOSBoston BruinsBOS · 45–27–10Rated #24
7:00 PM ETWin chanceCHIChicago Blackhawks46%TORToronto Maple Leafs54%7:00 PMChicago BlackhawksCHI · 29–39–14Rated #30CHI 46%54% TORToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 32–36–14Rated #31
7:00 PM ETWin chanceWPGWinnipeg Jets37%OTTOttawa Senators63%7:00 PMWinnipeg JetsWPG · 35–35–12Rated #21WPG 37%63% OTTOttawa SenatorsOTT · 44–27–11Rated #2
7:00 PM ETWin chanceVGKVegas Golden Knights47%TBLTampa Bay Lightning53%7:00 PMVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 39–26–17Rated #4VGK 47%53% TBLTampa Bay LightningTBL · 50–26–6Rated #6
7:00 PM ETWin chanceCARCarolina Hurricanes53%WSHWashington Capitals47%7:00 PMCarolina HurricanesCAR · 53–22–7Rated #1CAR 53%47% WSHWashington CapitalsWSH · 43–30–9Rated #22
7:30 PM ETWin chanceCOLColorado Avalanche50%BUFBuffalo Sabres50%7:30 PMColorado AvalancheCOL · 55–16–11Rated #3COL 50%50% BUFBuffalo SabresBUF · 50–23–9Rated #11
8:00 PM ETWin chanceMTLMontréal Canadiens48%NSHNashville Predators52%8:00 PMMontréal CanadiensMTL · 48–24–10Rated #18MTL 48%52% NSHNashville PredatorsNSH · 38–34–10Rated #23
8:00 PM ETWin chanceSJSSan Jose Sharks47%CGYCalgary Flames53%8:00 PMSan Jose SharksSJS · 39–35–8Rated #26SJS 47%53% CGYCalgary FlamesCGY · 34–39–9Rated #29
9:00 PM ETWin chanceSEASeattle Kraken47%VANVancouver Canucks53%9:00 PMSeattle KrakenSEA · 34–37–11Rated #28SEA 47%53% VANVancouver CanucksVAN · 25–49–8Rated #32
9:30 PM ETWin chanceFLAFlorida Panthers43%MINMinnesota Wild57%9:30 PMFlorida PanthersFLA · 40–38–4Rated #19FLA 43%57% MINMinnesota WildMIN · 46–24–12Rated #8
10:00 PM ETWin chanceSTLSt. Louis Blues44%ANAAnaheim Ducks56%10:00 PMSt. Louis BluesSTL · 37–33–12Rated #20STL 44%56% ANAAnaheim DucksANA · 43–33–6Rated #17

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

What the model sees · 2025-26 · 32 clubs · rank gap in spots

The Boston Bruins finished 8th. The model ranks them 24th.

The widest gap of the 32 clubs. The chart shows every club rated 7 or more spots from its place in points; this one is BOS.

NJD+12

VGK+9

EDM+7

OTT+7

BUF−7

DAL−7

WSH−10

MTL−12

BOS−16

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.

Drawn: the 9 clubs 7+ spots apart, of 32.

Why the model rates the Boston Bruins lower All 32 clubs’ gaps

How the gap is measured — rank in points minus rank by xG-Elo; positive means the model ranks a club higher than its points do

Each bar is one club: its rank by xG-Elo, the model’s rating built from the chances a club makes and allows, against its rank in the standings. #1 is the top of each ranking, so the Boston Bruins, #8 in points and #24 by xG-Elo, have a gap of 8 − 24 = −16.

Green bars are clubs the model ranks higher than their points; red bars, lower. The words carry the direction too, so the colour is never the only sign.

2026-27 full-season pace

League leaders

Nathan MacKinnon leads with 369.9 projected shots on goal, ahead of Auston Matthews at 328.7.

Full projections board

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

How the leaders are counted — a rate carried across every game of the club’s 2026-27 regular season, not a forecast of games he will play

A projection is the player’s recent rate per game multiplied by his club’s full schedule, assuming he plays every game. The sample is the games the rate rests on, and a dotted bar marks a projection where a solid one marks a count.

Full projections board

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Injury
Devils' Jack Hughes taken aback by AJ Mleczko's 'weird joke' about injuries (external site)
USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 9:11 PM ET
In this story: Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils
Transaction
Ducks Sign Tristan Luneau to Six-Year Contract Extension (external site)
The Hockey News - Anaheim Ducks via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 6:36 PM ET
In this story: Tristan Luneau, Anaheim Ducks
Also reported by: NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site)
Transaction
2 Montreal Canadiens Featured On Latest NHL Trade Board (external site)
The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 5:46 PM ET
In this story: Montréal Canadiens

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Mackie Samoskevich−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Tomas Hertl−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+13.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured