Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

COL Colorado Avalanche

@VGKVegas Golden Knights

Last gameMay 26 · 9:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

COL's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#1/32

what happened

By our rating

#3/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-2

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 55 wins, 16 regulation losses, 11 overtime losses
Points: 121
Points rank: 1/32
Goal diff: +99

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1560
League rank: 3/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LMay 26@VGK1–2

LMay 24@VGK3–5

LMay 22vsVGK1–3

LMay 20vsVGK2–4

WMay 13vsMIN4–3OT

WMay 11@MIN5–2

LMay 9@MIN1–5

WMay 5vsMIN5–2

WMay 3vsMIN9–6

WApr 26@LAK5–1

Current roster · per-game rates

33 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Nathan MacKinnon	29	1.52	0.58	0.94	4.39	435
Martin Necas	88	1.06	0.37	0.69	2.60	454
Nazem Kadri	91	0.75	0.29	0.45	3.05	423
Brock Nelson	11	0.74	0.37	0.38	2.39	428
Artturi Lehkonen	62	0.68	0.33	0.34	2.18	378
Gabriel Landeskog	92	0.66	0.29	0.38	2.34	149
Jaden Schwartz	17	0.55	0.26	0.29	2.02	315
Nicolas Roy	10	0.41	0.16	0.25	1.26	411
Parker Kelly	17	0.33	0.18	0.15	1.23	358
Tristen Nielsen	57	0.25	0.00	0.25	0.75	4
Logan O'Connor	25	0.28	0.12	0.17	1.21	357
Vinnie Hinostroza	24	0.28	0.10	0.18	1.12	206
Fabian Lysell	23	0.25	0.08	0.17	1.75	12
Fedor Svechkov	40	0.27	0.08	0.18	1.06	122
Gavin Brindley	54	0.23	0.11	0.12	1.10	57
Zachary L'Heureux	68	0.22	0.12	0.11	1.27	87
Adam Beckman	68	0.14	0.00	0.14	1.05	23
Sampo Ranta	75	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.86	16
Zakhar Bardakov	93	0.17	0.02	0.15	0.58	60
Georgii Merkulov	42	0.10	0.00	0.10	0.85	11
Nikita Prishchepov	85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.40	10
Taylor Makar	16	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.58	12

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Cale Makar	8	1.05	0.30	0.75	2.86	424
Devon Toews	7	0.52	0.10	0.43	1.75	429
Wyatt Aamodt	5	0.50	0.50	0.00	1.50	2
Brent Burns	84	0.43	0.12	0.32	2.17	464
Sam Malinski	70	0.38	0.09	0.30	1.84	197
Josh Manson	42	0.37	0.07	0.30	1.58	349
Christian Wolanin	86	0.20	0.02	0.17	0.90	25
Brett Kulak	27	0.22	0.04	0.18	1.25	491
Noah Juulsen	47	0.15	0.01	0.14	0.54	168
Domenick Fensore	89	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.25	3
Keaton Middleton	67	0.09	0.00	0.09	0.94	44

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Scott Wedgewood	41	.9143	2.11	22.5	24.6	56:02	174
Mackenzie Blackwood	39	.9043	2.49	23.5	25.9	55:31	197
Trent Miner	50	.9253	2.00	22.3	24.1	56:29	6

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Brent BurnsD82 gp$0.85M1 yrUFA3541.2

Parker KellyC82 gp$1.70M4 yrsUFA3520.6

Vinnie HinostrozaC65 gp$0.88M2 yrsUFA1820.6

Gavin BrindleyC56 gp$0.88M2 yrsRFA1314.9

Fedor SvechkovC70 gp$1.25M2 yrsRFA1713.6

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 26 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.