Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

DET Detroit Red Wings

@FLAFlorida Panthers

Last gameApr 15 · 7:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model and the standings agree on DET

In points

#16/32

what happened

By our rating

#16/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 41 wins, 31 regulation losses, 10 overtime losses
Points: 92
Points rank: 16/32
Goal diff: −17

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1502
League rank: 16/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LApr 15@FLA1–8

OTLApr 13@TBL3–4OT

LApr 11vsNJD3–5

WApr 9vsPHI6–3

OTLApr 7vsCBJ3–4SO

LApr 5vsMIN4–5

LApr 4@NYR1–4

WApr 2@PHI4–2

LMar 31@PIT1–5

LMar 28vsPHI3–5

Current roster · per-game rates

29 skaters · 2 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Alex DeBrincat	93	0.94	0.46	0.48	3.26	410
Lucas Raymond	23	0.92	0.32	0.60	2.17	400
Dylan Larkin	71	0.91	0.43	0.48	3.04	375
Viktor Arvidsson	71	0.66	0.31	0.35	2.53	327
Wilmer Skoog	32	0.67	0.00	0.67	1.33	3
Andrew Copp	18	0.51	0.14	0.37	1.44	388
J.T. Compher	37	0.42	0.16	0.26	1.28	414
Emmitt Finnie	58	0.37	0.16	0.21	1.46	82
Cameron Butler	58	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
John Leonard	43	0.32	0.17	0.15	1.01	37
Marco Kasper	92	0.31	0.15	0.16	1.70	159
Mason Appleton	22	0.30	0.11	0.19	1.25	350
Michael Rasmussen	27	0.29	0.13	0.16	1.19	352
Nate Danielson	29	0.25	0.07	0.18	1.11	28
Keegan Kolesar	55	0.23	0.09	0.14	0.86	454
Sheldon Dries	15	0.17	0.11	0.06	1.09	79
Dominik Shine	65	0.16	0.13	0.02	0.69	27
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård	28	0.07	0.00	0.07	1.43	14
Carter Mazur	34	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.35	9

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Moritz Seider	53	0.64	0.11	0.53	2.08	410
Justin Faulk	72	0.49	0.14	0.35	1.89	393
Simon Edvinsson	77	0.36	0.11	0.24	1.16	175
Axel Sandin-Pellikka	44	0.31	0.10	0.21	1.00	68
Ronnie Attard	23	0.18	0.03	0.15	1.22	29
Ben Chiarot	8	0.20	0.06	0.14	1.33	400
Jacob Bryson	78	0.16	0.03	0.14	0.44	266
Albert Johansson	20	0.14	0.04	0.10	0.76	143
William Lagesson	84	0.12	0.00	0.12	0.60	80
Jacob Bernard-Docker	25	0.12	0.03	0.09	0.70	202

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
John Gibson	36	.9012	2.72	24.8	27.5	55:38	241
Daniil Tarasov	40	.8943	3.02	25.6	28.6	56:50	98

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Emmitt FinnieC82 gp$0.92M2 yrsRFA3032.5

Axel Sandin-PellikkaD68 gp$0.94M2 yrsRFA2122.3

Marco KasperC81 gp$0.89M1 yrRFA1921.4

Viktor ArvidssonL69 gp$5.00M2 yrsUFA5410.8

Alex DeBrincatR82 gp$7.88M1 yrUFA8510.8

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 15 · modeled projections

0 BLK · sorted by projection

No BLK lines were captured for this game.