Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

PIT Pittsburgh Penguins

@PHIPhiladelphia Flyers

Last gameApr 29 · 7:30 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

PIT's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#10/32

what happened

By our rating

#15/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-5

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 41 wins, 25 regulation losses, 16 overtime losses
Points: 98
Points rank: 10/32
Goal diff: +25

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1504
League rank: 15/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

OTLApr 29@PHI0–1OT

WApr 27vsPHI3–2

WApr 25@PHI4–2

LApr 22@PHI2–5

LApr 20vsPHI0–3

LApr 18vsPHI2–3

LApr 14@STL5–7

LApr 12@WSH0–3

LApr 11vsWSH3–6

WApr 9@NJD5–2

Current roster · per-game rates

35 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Sidney Crosby	87	1.11	0.42	0.68	2.73	393
Evgeni Malkin	71	0.92	0.31	0.61	2.37	342
Bryan Rust	17	0.86	0.40	0.47	2.66	359
Rickard Rakell	67	0.77	0.37	0.40	2.65	371
Andrei Kuzmenko	10	0.57	0.26	0.31	1.43	278
Egor Chinakhov	59	0.52	0.26	0.26	1.94	253
Tommy Novak	18	0.51	0.21	0.30	1.59	297
Justin Brazeau	16	0.43	0.21	0.21	1.42	175
Ben Kindel	81	0.42	0.20	0.22	1.93	83
Nicholas Robertson	14	0.39	0.21	0.18	1.63	237
Blake Lizotte	46	0.33	0.13	0.20	0.96	348
Avery Hayes	85	0.31	0.31	0.00	1.56	16
Connor Dewar	19	0.32	0.15	0.16	1.29	335
Filip Hallander	11	0.30	0.08	0.23	1.65	16
Rutger McGroarty	2	0.27	0.13	0.14	1.52	32
Elmer Soderblom	25	0.26	0.13	0.12	1.28	111
Hendrix Lapierre	22	0.26	0.06	0.19	0.76	162
Ville Koivunen	41	0.24	0.05	0.20	1.01	47
Tristan Broz	26	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00	1
Vasily Ponomarev	11	0.13	0.06	0.06	1.06	9
David Gustafsson	13	0.17	0.07	0.10	0.81	134

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Erik Karlsson	65	0.80	0.18	0.62	2.38	377
Kris Letang	58	0.49	0.09	0.39	1.81	385
Philip Kemp	52	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
Samuel Girard	49	0.32	0.05	0.27	1.01	371
Ilya Solovyov	7	0.24	0.03	0.22	0.75	48
Jake Livanavage	4	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
Trevor van Riemsdyk	57	0.23	0.03	0.20	0.83	386
Kaedan Korczak	6	0.22	0.03	0.19	0.76	169
Caleb Jones	82	0.18	0.03	0.15	0.92	165
Harrison Brunicke	45	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.89	9
Ryan Graves	27	0.14	0.04	0.09	1.00	316
Owen Pickering	38	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.52	29
Declan Carlile	72	0.08	0.03	0.04	0.78	48
Alexander Alexeyev	56	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.65	94

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Arturs Silovs	37	.8896	2.89	23.2	26.0	57:58	71
Joel Blomqvist	30	.8847	3.27	25.1	28.3	51:30	15
Sergei Murashov	1	.8966	2.40	20.8	23.2	56:15	5

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Ben KindelC77 gp$0.99M2 yrsRFA3535.5

Justin BrazeauR64 gp$1.50M1 yrUFA3422.7

Connor DewarC78 gp$2.25M2 yrsUFA3013.3

Bryan RustR72 gp$5.13M2 yrsUFA6512.7

Hendrix LapierreC74 gp$1.30M2 yrsRFA1612.3

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 29 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.