Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

TBL Tampa Bay Lightning

vsMTLMontréal Canadiens

Last gameMay 3 · 6:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

TBL's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#5/32

what happened

By our rating

#6/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-1

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 50 wins, 26 regulation losses, 6 overtime losses
Points: 106
Points rank: 5/32
Goal diff: +59

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1532
League rank: 6/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LMay 3vsMTL1–2

WMay 1@MTL1–0OT

LApr 29vsMTL2–3

WApr 26@MTL3–2

OTLApr 24@MTL2–3OT

WApr 21vsMTL3–2OT

OTLApr 19vsMTL3–4OT

LApr 15vsNYR2–4

WApr 13vsDET4–3OT

WApr 11@BOS2–1

Current roster · per-game rates

30 skaters · 6 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Nikita Kucherov	86	1.58	0.50	1.09	3.25	411
Jake Guentzel	59	1.06	0.47	0.59	2.87	412
Brandon Hagel	38	1.00	0.45	0.54	2.71	437
Brayden Point	21	0.90	0.41	0.48	2.33	401
Anthony Cirelli	71	0.66	0.29	0.37	1.76	410
Ilya Mikheyev	95	0.45	0.23	0.22	1.70	352
Nick Abruzzese	80	0.38	0.08	0.31	0.92	11
Gage Goncalves	93	0.42	0.14	0.28	1.05	148
Yanni Gourde	37	0.41	0.12	0.29	1.45	400
Dominic James	17	0.36	0.18	0.18	1.36	50
Dylan Duke	53	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.75	3
Jakob Pelletier	11	0.31	0.12	0.20	1.10	91
Pontus Holmberg	29	0.29	0.13	0.16	1.14	248
Conor Geekie	14	0.24	0.11	0.13	0.97	72
Jeffrey Viel	25	0.23	0.08	0.15	1.33	100
Zemgus Girgensons	28	0.19	0.09	0.10	1.12	367
Scott Sabourin	46	0.17	0.03	0.14	0.40	39
Jansen Harkins	10	0.15	0.06	0.09	0.85	253

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Victor Hedman	77	0.76	0.13	0.63	2.08	386
John Carlson	74	0.72	0.14	0.58	2.16	382
Maxim Groshev	52	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.50	2
Charle-Edouard D'Astous	51	0.41	0.08	0.33	1.16	73
Ryan McDonagh	27	0.39	0.07	0.32	0.96	387
J.J. Moser	90	0.34	0.08	0.26	1.21	350
Max Crozier	24	0.24	0.02	0.22	1.32	58
Simon Lundmark	7	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	1
Emil Lilleberg	78	0.22	0.04	0.17	0.73	180
Erik Cernak	81	0.21	0.04	0.17	0.92	372
Steven Santini	16	0.09	0.00	0.09	0.39	18
Michael Callahan	79	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.56	22

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Andrei Vasilevskiy	88	.9119	2.37	24.4	26.7	59:30	342
Jonas Johansson	31	.8873	3.11	24.5	27.6	56:58	84
Olivier Rodrigue	32	.8621	2.00	12.5	14.5	38:43	2
Mads Sogaard	40	.8589	3.20	19.5	22.7	47:24	31
Hugo Alnefelt	60	.7000	3.00	7.0	10.0	20:00	1
Dennis Hildeby	35	.9097	2.52	24.8	27.2	51:42	26

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Charle-Edouard D'AstousD70 gp$0.88M1 yrUFA2933.1

Gage GoncalvesC74 gp$1.20M1 yrRFA3327.5

Zemgus GirgensonsC74 gp$0.93M1 yrUFA2021.6

Dominic JamesC43 gp$0.91M1 yrRFA1516.5

Pontus HolmbergR70 gp$1.55M1 yrUFA2214.2

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 3 · modeled projections

0 PIM · sorted by projection

No PIM lines were captured for this game.