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Wed, Dec 9, 2026

Scores

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

What the model sees · 2025-26 · 32 clubs · rank gap in spots

The model’s rating against the standings

The Boston Bruins (BOS) are 8th in points. The model ranks them 24th.

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.

Drawn: the 9 clubs 7+ spots apart, of 32.

How the gap is measured — rank in points minus rank by xG-Elo; positive means the model ranks a club higher than its points do

Each bar is one club: its rank by xG-Elo, the model’s rating built from the chances a club makes and allows, against its rank in the standings. #1 is the top of each ranking, so the Boston Bruins, #8 in points and #24 by xG-Elo, have a gap of 8 − 24 = −16.

Green bars are clubs the model ranks higher than their points; red bars, lower. The words carry the direction too, so the colour is never the only sign.

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Counted from the 2026-27 regular season, with the games each player has played.

  1. 1Nikita ZadorovBOS · D · 1 game8hits
  2. 2Andrei SvechnikovCAR · R · 1 game8 hits
  3. 3Marc GatcombVGK · C · 1 game8 hits
  4. 4Jordan StaalCAR · C · 1 game7 hits
  5. 5Sam BennettFLA · C · 1 game7 hits

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Former Montreal Canadiens Goalie Placed On Waivers By Hurricanes (external site)

    The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Carolina Hurricanes, Montréal Canadiens

  2. Lineup

    Former Senators Caught In Final Roster Cuts Now Set For AHL Season (external site)

    The Hockey News - Ottawa Senators via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Ottawa Senators

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured