Wed, Oct 8, 2025
Archived sheet
1 of 4 games had posted player lines
Archived Penalty minutes
4 games · 18 players · 0 posted PIM lines. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
4 games · 18 players · 0 posted PIM lines · sorted by projection
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(PIM = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals
7:30 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers
10:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights
10:00 PM ETGame page
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.