Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

CBJ Columbus Blue Jackets

vsWSHWashington Capitals

Last gameApr 14 · 7:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates CBJ higher than the standings do

In points

#17/32

what happened

By our rating

#11/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 40 wins, 30 regulation losses, 12 overtime losses
Points: 92
Points rank: 17/32
Goal diff: +0

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1511
League rank: 11/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LApr 14vsWSH1–2

LApr 12vsBOS2–3

WApr 11@MTL5–2

LApr 9@BUF0–5

WApr 7@DET4–3SO

LApr 4vsWPG1–2

LApr 2@CAR1–5

LMar 31vsCAR2–5

OTLMar 29vsBOS3–4SO

LMar 28vsSJS2–3

Current roster · per-game rates

29 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Kirill Marchenko	86	0.83	0.36	0.47	2.71	292
Valeri Nichushkin	43	0.72	0.33	0.39	2.39	333
Adam Fantilli	19	0.69	0.31	0.37	2.50	213
Sean Monahan	23	0.62	0.23	0.39	1.90	310
Charlie Coyle	3	0.60	0.23	0.37	1.64	445
Dmitri Voronkov	10	0.54	0.28	0.26	1.88	211
Conor Garland	83	0.53	0.20	0.33	2.08	405
Kent Johnson	91	0.46	0.17	0.28	1.58	274
Cole Sillinger	4	0.42	0.12	0.29	1.78	367
Mathieu Olivier	24	0.38	0.21	0.17	1.38	276
Danton Heinen	43	0.34	0.14	0.20	1.16	355
James Malatesta	67	0.27	0.13	0.13	0.80	13
Owen Sillinger	12	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
Jack Williams	92	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
Miles Wood	11	0.28	0.14	0.13	1.63	264
Luca Del Bel Belluz	93	0.24	0.06	0.18	0.94	30
Isac Lundeström	21	0.20	0.07	0.13	0.80	334
Mikael Pyyhtia	82	0.16	0.09	0.06	0.84	71
Ryan Lomberg	94	0.16	0.07	0.09	0.98	375
Luca Pinelli	53	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00	3

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Zach Werenski	8	1.01	0.27	0.74	3.44	307
Damon Severson	78	0.42	0.11	0.32	1.32	381
Denton Mateychuk	5	0.38	0.15	0.23	1.13	120
Ivan Provorov	9	0.38	0.09	0.29	1.64	407
Dante Fabbro	15	0.22	0.08	0.14	1.08	350
Erik Gudbranson	44	0.18	0.04	0.14	1.08	291
Colton White	—	0.16	0.00	0.16	0.62	96
Jake Christiansen	2	0.10	0.01	0.09	0.75	152
Tim Berni	75	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.98	59

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Pheonix Copley	29	.8910	2.60	21.3	23.9	53:59	50
Elvis Merzlikins	90	.8895	3.19	25.6	28.8	57:02	213
Jet Greaves	73	.9107	2.55	26.0	28.6	59:31	76

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Denton MateychukD75 gp$0.89M1 yrRFA3135.0

Kirill MarchenkoR76 gp$3.85M1 yrRFA6717.4

Kent JohnsonC76 gp$1.80M1 yrRFA2212.2

Danton HeinenL46 gp$1.00M1 yrUFA1212.0

Charlie CoyleC82 gp$6.00M6 yrsUFA589.7

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 14 · modeled projections

0 HITS · sorted by projection

No HITS lines were captured for this game.