Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

STL St. Louis Blues

@UTAUtah Mammoth

Last gameApr 16 · 7:30 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates STL higher than the standings do

In points

#22/32

what happened

By our rating

#20/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 37 wins, 33 regulation losses, 12 overtime losses
Points: 86
Points rank: 22/32
Goal diff: −27

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1494
League rank: 20/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

WApr 16@UTA5–3

WApr 14vsPIT7–5

WApr 13vsMIN6–3

WApr 11@CHI5–3

LApr 9vsWPG2–3

LApr 7vsCOL1–3

WApr 5@COL3–2

WApr 3@ANA6–2

OTLApr 1@LAK1–2OT

LMar 30@SJS4–5

Current roster · per-game rates

28 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Robert Thomas	18	1.04	0.34	0.70	1.77	380
Dylan Holloway	81	0.73	0.32	0.41	2.32	251
Jimmy Snuggerud	21	0.71	0.29	0.42	2.34	84
Pavel Buchnevich	89	0.71	0.28	0.43	1.94	392
Mason McTavish	83	0.60	0.24	0.35	2.10	314
Connor McMichael	77	0.58	0.23	0.35	1.89	332
Jake Neighbours	63	0.53	0.25	0.28	1.40	287
Pius Suter	22	0.47	0.23	0.24	1.57	386
Jonatan Berggren	29	0.39	0.16	0.23	1.18	205
Dillon Dube	29	0.35	0.15	0.20	1.49	216
Oskar Sundqvist	70	0.32	0.10	0.22	0.84	324
Otto Stenberg	28	0.31	0.09	0.22	0.97	32
Dalibor Dvorsky	54	0.29	0.17	0.13	1.31	73
Nathan Walker	26	0.25	0.11	0.13	0.92	261
Alexey Toropchenko	13	0.21	0.08	0.13	1.14	343
Ross Johnston	49	0.16	0.04	0.13	0.49	226
Zach Dean	52	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.11	9
Jack Finley	37	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.60	45
Aleksanteri Kaskimaki	65	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.20	5

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Torey Krug	47	0.53	0.08	0.45	2.05	207
Cam Fowler	17	0.47	0.08	0.39	1.24	396
Philip Broberg	6	0.39	0.08	0.31	1.21	257
Colton Parayko	55	0.35	0.11	0.24	1.62	401
Calle Rosen	43	0.32	0.12	0.19	1.15	82
Theo Lindstein	41	0.24	0.12	0.12	1.18	17
Tyler Tucker	75	0.22	0.05	0.17	0.94	162
Logan Mailloux	23	0.22	0.08	0.13	1.22	75
Brandon Carlo	25	0.15	0.02	0.13	1.12	408

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Jordan Binnington	50	.8916	2.89	23.8	26.7	57:22	265
Joel Hofer	30	.9088	2.45	24.3	26.7	56:04	115
Georgii Romanov	—	.8825	3.06	22.9	26.0	49:37	10

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Jimmy SnuggerudR70 gp$0.95M1 yrRFA5153.7

Dalibor DvorskyR71 gp$0.91M2 yrsRFA2123.1

Oskar SundqvistC52 gp$0.85M1 yrUFA1720.0

Tyler TuckerD69 gp$0.93M1 yrUFA1718.4

Logan MaillouxD67 gp$0.85M1 yrRFA1315.3

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 16 · modeled projections

0 A · sorted by projection

No A lines were captured for this game.