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Where the model and the standings disagree most · 2025-26

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do

Sun, Nov 22, 2026

Scores

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Counted from the 2026-27 regular season, with the games each player has played.

  1. 1Vasily PodkolzinEDM · R · 1 game7shots on goal
  2. 2Evan BouchardEDM · D · 1 game6 shots on goal
  3. 3Leon DraisaitlEDM · C · 1 game5 shots on goal
  4. 4William NylanderTOR · R · 1 game5 shots on goal
  5. 5Jordan GreenwayCHI · L · 1 game5 shots on goal

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Sabres Cut Down Roster, List Four Players On Injured Reserve, And Waive Conor Sheary (external site)

    The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Conor Sheary, Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

2025-26 · 32 clubs · rank gap in spots

The model’s rating against the standings

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do.

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.

Drawn on a phone: gaps of 7+ spots

Boston Bruins (BOS): #8 in points, #24 by xG-Elo

Explore BOS All 32 clubs’ gaps
How the gap is measured — rank in points minus rank by xG-Elo; positive means the model ranks a club higher than its points do

Each bar is one club: its rank by xG-Elo, the model’s rating built from the chances a club makes and allows, against its rank in the standings. #1 is the top of each ranking, so the Boston Bruins, #8 in points and #24 by xG-Elo, have a gap of 8 − 24 = −16.

Green bars are clubs the model ranks higher than their points; red bars, lower. The words carry the direction too, so the colour is never the only sign.

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27
What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Measured against each player’s position rather than raw goals minus xG, so forwards and defencemen share one scale. Projected at the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured