Sat, Jan 9, 2027

Scores

12:00 PM ETWin chanceCHIChicago Blackhawks39%NJDNew Jersey Devils61%12:00 PMChicago BlackhawksCHI · 29–39–14Rated #30CHI 39%61% NJDNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 42–37–3Rated #9
3:30 PM ETWin chanceTBLTampa Bay Lightning53%CGYCalgary Flames47%3:30 PMTampa Bay LightningTBL · 50–26–6Rated #6TBL 53%47% CGYCalgary FlamesCGY · 34–39–9Rated #29
3:30 PM ETWin chanceNYINew York Islanders40%EDMEdmonton Oilers60%3:30 PMNew York IslandersNYI · 43–34–5Rated #25NYI 40%60% EDMEdmonton OilersEDM · 41–30–11Rated #7
7:00 PM ETWin chanceCARCarolina Hurricanes51%BUFBuffalo Sabres49%7:00 PMCarolina HurricanesCAR · 53–22–7Rated #1CAR 51%49% BUFBuffalo SabresBUF · 50–23–9Rated #13
7:00 PM ETWin chancePHIPhiladelphia Flyers54%TORToronto Maple Leafs46%7:00 PMPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 43–27–12Rated #5PHI 54%46% TORToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 32–36–14Rated #31
7:00 PM ETWin chancePITPittsburgh Penguins44%MTLMontréal Canadiens56%7:00 PMPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 41–25–16Rated #15PIT 44%56% MTLMontréal CanadiensMTL · 48–24–10Rated #18
7:00 PM ETWin chanceBOSBoston Bruins43%DETDetroit Red Wings57%7:00 PMBoston BruinsBOS · 45–27–10Rated #24BOS 43%57% DETDetroit Red WingsDET · 41–31–10Rated #16
7:00 PM ETWin chanceUTAUtah Mammoth47%WPGWinnipeg Jets53%7:00 PMUtah MammothUTA · 43–33–6Rated #12UTA 47%53% WPGWinnipeg JetsWPG · 35–35–12Rated #21
8:00 PM ETWin chanceNSHNashville Predators41%MINMinnesota Wild59%8:00 PMNashville PredatorsNSH · 38–34–10Rated #23NSH 41%59% MINMinnesota WildMIN · 46–24–12Rated #8
9:00 PM ETWin chanceDALDallas Stars46%LAKLos Angeles Kings54%9:00 PMDallas StarsDAL · 50–20–12Rated #10DAL 46%54% LAKLos Angeles KingsLAK · 35–27–20Rated #14
10:00 PM ETWin chanceFLAFlorida Panthers51%VANVancouver Canucks49%10:00 PMFlorida PanthersFLA · 40–38–4Rated #19FLA 51%49% VANVancouver CanucksVAN · 25–49–8Rated #32
10:00 PM ETWin chanceSEASeattle Kraken36%VGKVegas Golden Knights64%10:00 PMSeattle KrakenSEA · 34–37–11Rated #27SEA 36%64% VGKVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 39–26–17Rated #4
10:00 PM ETWin chanceNYRNew York Rangers44%SJSSan Jose Sharks56%10:00 PMNew York RangersNYR · 34–39–9Rated #28NYR 44%56% SJSSan Jose SharksSJS · 39–35–8Rated #26

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

What the model sees · 2025-26 · 32 clubs · rank gap in spots

The Boston Bruins finished 8th. The model ranks them 24th.

The widest gap of the 32 clubs. The chart shows every club rated 7 or more spots from its place in points; this one is BOS.

NJD+12

VGK+9

EDM+7

OTT+7

DAL−7

BUF−9

WSH−10

MTL−12

BOS−16

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.

Drawn: the 9 clubs 7+ spots apart, of 32.

Why the model rates the Boston Bruins lower All 32 clubs’ gaps

How the gap is measured — rank in points minus rank by xG-Elo; positive means the model ranks a club higher than its points do

Each bar is one club: its rank by xG-Elo, the model’s rating built from the chances a club makes and allows, against its rank in the standings. #1 is the top of each ranking, so the Boston Bruins, #8 in points and #24 by xG-Elo, have a gap of 8 − 24 = −16.

Green bars are clubs the model ranks higher than their points; red bars, lower. The words carry the direction too, so the colour is never the only sign.

2026-27 full-season pace

League leaders

Connor McDavid leads with 135.8 projected points, ahead of Nikita Kucherov at 131.9.

Full projections board

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

How the leaders are counted — a rate carried across every game of the club’s 2026-27 regular season, not a forecast of games he will play

A projection is the player’s recent rate per game multiplied by his club’s full schedule, assuming he plays every game. The sample is the games the rate rests on, and a dotted bar marks a projection where a solid one marks a count.

Full projections board

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Transaction
Sabres Sign Louis Crevier To Four-Year Contract Extension On The Eve Of Regular Season (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 4:08 PM ET
In this story: Bowen Byram, Louis Crevier, Buffalo Sabres
Transaction
Anaheim Ducks sign D Tristan Luneau to 6-year, $43.2 million extension after just 14 NHL games (external site)
Associated Press via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 4:06 PM ET
In this story: Tristan Luneau, Anaheim Ducks
Lineup
Penguins Assign Forward To Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (external site)
The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports · Oct 1, 3:32 PM ET
In this story: Rutger McGroarty, Pittsburgh Penguins

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured