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Fri, Jan 15, 2027

Scores

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

What the model sees · 2025-26 · 32 clubs · rank gap in spots

The Boston Bruins finished 8th. The model ranks them 24th.

The widest gap of the 32 clubs. The chart shows every club rated 7 or more spots from its place in points; this one is BOS.

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.

Drawn: the 9 clubs 7+ spots apart, of 32.

Why the model rates the Boston Bruins lower All 32 clubs’ gaps
How the gap is measured — rank in points minus rank by xG-Elo; positive means the model ranks a club higher than its points do

Each bar is one club: its rank by xG-Elo, the model’s rating built from the chances a club makes and allows, against its rank in the standings. #1 is the top of each ranking, so the Boston Bruins, #8 in points and #24 by xG-Elo, have a gap of 8 − 24 = −16.

Green bars are clubs the model ranks higher than their points; red bars, lower. The words carry the direction too, so the colour is never the only sign.

2026-27 full-season pace

League leaders

Nathan MacKinnon leads with 369.9 projected shots on goal, ahead of Auston Matthews at 328.7.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected
  1. 1Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C369.9 projected shots on goal436-game sample
  2. 2Auston MatthewsTOR · C328.7 projected shots on goal393-game sample
  3. 3Brady TkachukFLA · L322.5 projected shots on goal385-game sample
  4. 4Jack HughesNJD · C320.3 projected shots on goal324-game sample
  5. 5David PastrnakBOS · R318.6 projected shots on goal429-game sample
How the leaders are counted — a rate carried across every game of the club’s 2026-27 regular season, not a forecast of games he will play

A projection is the player’s recent rate per game multiplied by his club’s full schedule, assuming he plays every game. The sample is the games the rate rests on, and a dotted bar marks a projection where a solid one marks a count.

Full projections board

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Newly Acquired Forward Scores First Goal In Wild Debut (external site)

    The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Blake Coleman, Minnesota Wild

  2. Transaction

    Ducks Sign Tristan Luneau to Six-Year Contract Extension (external site)

    The Hockey News - Anaheim Ducks via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Tristan Luneau, Anaheim Ducks

    Also reported by: NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site)

  3. Rumour

    2 Montreal Canadiens Featured On Latest NHL Trade Board (external site)

    The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Montréal Canadiens

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Tomas Hertl−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+13.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured