Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

NYI New York Islanders

vsCARCarolina Hurricanes

Last gameApr 14 · 7:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

NYI's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#19/32

what happened

By our rating

#25/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-6

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 43 wins, 34 regulation losses, 5 overtime losses
Points: 91
Points rank: 19/32
Goal diff: −8

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1471
League rank: 25/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LApr 14vsCAR1–2

LApr 12vsMTL1–4

LApr 11vsOTT0–3

WApr 9vsTOR5–3

LApr 4@CAR3–4

LApr 3vsPHI1–4

LMar 31@BUF3–4

LMar 30vsPIT3–8

WMar 28vsFLA5–2

WMar 26vsDAL2–1

Current roster · per-game rates

29 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Mathew Barzal	13	0.87	0.24	0.63	2.43	333
Bo Horvat	14	0.80	0.42	0.38	3.15	390
Victor Eklund	73	1.00	0.00	1.00	2.00	1
Kyle Palmieri	21	0.63	0.29	0.34	2.42	324
Brayden Schenn	10	0.56	0.23	0.33	1.66	407
Matias Maccelli	63	0.54	0.18	0.35	1.40	295
Simon Holmstrom	92	0.50	0.24	0.26	1.20	282
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	44	0.48	0.20	0.29	1.29	392
Ruslan Iskhakov	37	0.50	0.00	0.50	1.00	2
Calum Ritchie	64	0.45	0.20	0.25	1.23	72
Anthony Duclair	11	0.44	0.21	0.23	1.40	306
Emil Heineman	51	0.35	0.24	0.11	1.79	153
Pierre Engvall	18	0.32	0.15	0.17	1.64	308
Ondrej Palat	81	0.30	0.12	0.18	1.21	394
Matt Luff	39	0.21	0.16	0.05	1.04	47
Casey Cizikas	53	0.24	0.11	0.12	1.09	399
Mitchell Chaffee	41	0.22	0.14	0.09	0.94	118
Liam Foudy	43	0.19	0.07	0.12	0.89	79
Kyle MacLean	32	0.14	0.05	0.09	0.75	177

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Matthew Schaefer	48	0.72	0.28	0.44	2.71	82
Tony DeAngelo	77	0.49	0.08	0.40	2.00	299
Marshall Warren	41	0.38	0.00	0.38	0.88	8
Ryan Pulock	6	0.34	0.05	0.29	1.32	357
Adam Pelech	3	0.25	0.04	0.21	1.52	350
Alexander Romanov	28	0.24	0.05	0.19	1.40	324
Ethan Bear	74	0.22	0.05	0.17	1.24	143
Scott Mayfield	24	0.18	0.03	0.15	0.92	336
Isaiah George	36	0.17	0.02	0.15	0.73	37
Matthew Kessel	51	0.12	0.04	0.07	0.67	99

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Semyon Varlamov	40	.9089	2.65	26.4	29.1	58:11	97
Vitek Vanecek	41	.8886	2.83	22.6	25.4	55:07	182
Ilya Sorokin	30	.9087	2.63	26.0	28.7	58:18	293

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Matthew SchaeferD82 gp$0.99M2 yrsRFA5959.8

Calum RitchieC65 gp$0.94M2 yrsRFA3031.9

Emil HeinemanL82 gp$1.10M1 yrRFA3128.2

Matias MaccelliL71 gp$2.25M1 yrRFA3917.3

Simon HolmstromR79 gp$3.63M1 yrRFA4111.3

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 14 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.