Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

TOR Toronto Maple Leafs

@OTTOttawa Senators

Last gameApr 15 · 7:30 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

TOR's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#28/32

what happened

By our rating

#31/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-3

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 32 wins, 36 regulation losses, 14 overtime losses
Points: 78
Points rank: 28/32
Goal diff: −46

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1439
League rank: 31/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LApr 15@OTT1–3

LApr 13vsDAL5–6

LApr 11vsFLA2–6

LApr 9@NYI3–5

LApr 8vsWSH0–4

OTLApr 4@LAK6–7OT

LApr 2@SJS1–4

WMar 30@ANA5–4OT

LMar 28@STL1–5

WMar 25vsNYR4–3

Current roster · per-game rates

33 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
William Nylander	88	1.13	0.49	0.64	2.94	427
Auston Matthews	34	1.05	0.53	0.53	4.00	391
John Tavares	91	0.88	0.41	0.47	2.69	434
Matthew Knies	23	0.74	0.30	0.44	1.79	267
Jack Roslovic	28	0.50	0.25	0.25	1.86	398
Max Domi	11	0.49	0.15	0.35	1.51	439
Easton Cowan	53	0.44	0.17	0.27	1.39	66
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev	85	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
Nick Paul	20	0.40	0.21	0.19	1.63	414
Teddy Blueger	53	0.38	0.14	0.24	1.29	339
Dakota Joshua	81	0.34	0.18	0.16	0.98	298
Luke Haymes	43	0.25	0.00	0.25	0.75	4
Colton Sissons	10	0.27	0.11	0.17	1.16	412
Bo Groulx	29	0.22	0.12	0.10	0.95	78
Steven Lorentz	18	0.23	0.09	0.14	0.98	370
Vinni Lettieri	95	0.20	0.12	0.09	1.54	104
Brandon Duhaime	22	0.17	0.08	0.09	0.93	408
Ryan Tverberg	77	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	2
Jacob Quillan	26	0.13	0.04	0.09	0.60	24
Zack MacEwen	15	0.12	0.07	0.06	1.08	186
Michael Pezzetta	61	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.65	209

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Darren Raddysh	43	0.70	0.19	0.50	2.29	269
Morgan Rielly	44	0.54	0.13	0.41	1.83	417
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	95	0.43	0.09	0.34	1.45	405
Jake McCabe	22	0.33	0.06	0.27	1.02	401
Chris Tanev	8	0.23	0.03	0.20	0.69	348
Emil Andrae	36	0.20	0.03	0.17	0.72	111
Marshall Rifai	83	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.83	3
Troy Stecher	28	0.17	0.04	0.13	0.97	306
Dakota Mermis	36	0.14	0.07	0.07	0.74	66
Cole McWard	4	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.52	9
William Villeneuve	76	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.67	3
Philippe Myers	51	0.08	0.02	0.06	1.16	118

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Sergei Bobrovsky	72	.8965	2.65	23.0	25.6	58:48	344
Anthony Stolarz	41	.9077	2.48	24.4	26.9	55:00	142
Artur Akhtyamov	70	.8765	3.67	23.7	27.0	42:00	3

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Easton CowanR66 gp$0.90M2 yrsRFA2932.2

John TavaresC82 gp$4.39M3 yrsUFA7116.2

Steven LorentzC71 gp$1.35M2 yrsUFA1813.3

Oliver Ekman-LarssonD78 gp$3.50M2 yrsUFA3911.1

Troy StecherD64 gp$1.35M2 yrsUFA1410.4

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 15 · modeled projections

0 BLK · sorted by projection

No BLK lines were captured for this game.