The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average
Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.
- Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
- Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
- Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
- Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
- Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
- Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
- Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
- Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
- Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
- Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27
Measured against each player’s position rather than raw goals minus xG, so forwards and defencemen share one scale. Projected at the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured

