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Where the model and the standings disagree most · 2025-26

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do

Why the model rates the Boston Bruins lower See the full chart

Tue, Sep 29, 2026

Tonight

Opening night

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2025-26 regular-season totals

League leaders

Counted from the 2025-26 regular season, with the games each player has played.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
2025-26 totals2026-27 projected
  1. 1Nathan MacKinnonC · 80 games350shots on goal
  2. 2Connor McDavidC · 82 games306 shots on goal
  3. 3Jason RobertsonL · 82 games294 shots on goal
  4. 4Alex DeBrincatR · 82 games287 shots on goal
  5. 5Macklin CelebriniC · 82 games287 shots on goal

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Sabres Cut Down Roster, List Four Players On Injured Reserve, And Waive Conor Sheary (external site)

    The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Conor Sheary, Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers

  2. Injury

    Brock Faber injury update as Wild defenseman has surgery on skull (external site)

    USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Brock Faber, Minnesota Wild

  3. Injury

    Dahlin eager to build on last season after Atlantic-winning Sabres snapped 14-year playoff drought (external site)

    Associated Press via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model rates the Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do

Boston Bruins (BOS): #8 in points, #24 by xG-Elo · gaps of 7+ spots

Rank gap in spots, 2025-26.
All 32 clubs

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Tomas Hertl−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27
What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Measured against each player’s position rather than raw goals minus xG, so forwards and defencemen share one scale. Projected at the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured