Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

OTT Ottawa Senators

vsCARCarolina Hurricanes

Last gameApr 25 · 3:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates OTT higher than the standings do

In points

#9/32

what happened

By our rating

#2/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 44 wins, 27 regulation losses, 11 overtime losses
Points: 99
Points rank: 9/32
Goal diff: +32

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1564
League rank: 2/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LApr 25vsCAR2–4

LApr 23vsCAR1–2

OTLApr 20@CAR2–3OT

LApr 18@CAR0–2

WApr 15vsTOR3–1

OTLApr 12@NJD3–4OT

WApr 11@NYI3–0

WApr 9vsFLA5–1

WApr 7vsTBL6–2

WApr 5vsCAR6–3

Current roster · per-game rates

29 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Tim Stützle	18	0.98	0.36	0.62	2.34	404
Drake Batherson	19	0.85	0.38	0.48	2.26	381
William Eklund	27	0.68	0.20	0.48	2.07	252
Dylan Cozens	24	0.66	0.29	0.37	2.44	413
Claude Giroux	28	0.65	0.20	0.45	1.86	422
Shane Pinto	12	0.57	0.29	0.28	2.07	280
Andre Burakovsky	95	0.47	0.15	0.32	1.38	344
Ridly Greig	71	0.43	0.16	0.26	1.60	257
Fabian Zetterlund	20	0.42	0.21	0.21	1.87	339
Michael Amadio	22	0.39	0.18	0.22	1.23	379
Philip Tomasino	—	0.38	0.15	0.23	1.54	221
Warren Foegele	37	0.38	0.21	0.16	1.97	438
Stephen Halliday	34	0.37	0.13	0.23	1.13	30
Sammy Blais	27	0.30	0.10	0.20	0.82	159
Nick Cousins	21	0.27	0.10	0.17	1.13	392
Ryan Suzuki	—	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2
Xavier Bourgault	53	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.50	2
Kurtis MacDermid	23	0.06	0.01	0.04	0.33	189
Hayden Hodgson	42	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.49	19

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Carter Yakemchuk	26	0.80	0.20	0.60	1.60	5
Jake Sanderson	85	0.70	0.16	0.54	2.18	312
Thomas Chabot	72	0.55	0.12	0.42	2.04	325
Jordan Spence	10	0.37	0.07	0.30	1.29	270
Artem Zub	2	0.32	0.06	0.27	1.09	347
Tyler Kleven	43	0.21	0.04	0.17	1.15	174
Samuel Bolduc	58	0.14	0.07	0.08	0.95	54
Cameron Crotty	5	0.13	0.00	0.13	0.77	9
Jorian Donovan	56	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	2
Nikolas Matinpalo	33	0.09	0.01	0.08	0.78	105

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Linus Ullmark	35	.9038	2.57	24.1	26.7	58:39	243
Samuel Ersson	30	.8787	2.86	20.7	23.6	55:50	143
Leevi Meriläinen	1	.8759	2.89	20.4	23.3	54:44	34

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Claude GirouxR82 gp$2.00M1 yrUFA4924.5

Nick CousinsC81 gp$1.59M2 yrsUFA2314.5

Drake BathersonR79 gp$4.97M1 yrUFA7114.3

Michael AmadioR81 gp$2.60M1 yrUFA3513.5

Tyler KlevenD70 gp$1.60M1 yrRFA1811.3

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · Apr 25 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.