Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

UTA Utah Mammoth

vsVGKVegas Golden Knights

Last gameMay 1 · 10:00 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

The model rates UTA higher than the standings do

In points

#15/32

what happened

By our rating

#12/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 43 wins, 33 regulation losses, 6 overtime losses
Points: 92
Points rank: 15/32
Goal diff: +28

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1509
League rank: 12/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

LMay 1vsVGK1–5

OTLApr 29@VGK4–5OT

OTLApr 27vsVGK4–5OT

WApr 24vsVGK4–2

WApr 21@VGK3–2

LApr 19@VGK2–4

LApr 16vsSTL3–5

WApr 14vsWPG5–3

LApr 12@CGY1–4

LApr 11vsCAR1–4

Current roster · per-game rates

26 skaters · 3 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Clayton Keller	9	1.06	0.35	0.71	2.78	396
Dylan Guenther	11	0.88	0.46	0.42	3.01	233
Nick Schmaltz	8	0.85	0.33	0.51	2.33	375
Vincent Trocheck	16	0.79	0.28	0.51	2.15	431
Logan Cooley	92	0.76	0.37	0.39	2.00	217
Anders Lee	72	0.55	0.28	0.28	2.52	414
Lawson Crouse	67	0.47	0.27	0.21	1.76	391
Barrett Hayton	27	0.44	0.18	0.26	1.85	325
Ben McCartney	62	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	2
Kailer Yamamoto	56	0.40	0.20	0.20	1.07	301
Michael Carcone	53	0.38	0.21	0.18	1.71	242
Jack McBain	22	0.33	0.13	0.20	1.22	318
Daniil But	19	0.24	0.10	0.14	1.48	29
Kevin Stenlund	82	0.24	0.10	0.14	0.98	335
Joshua Roy	89	0.22	0.14	0.08	1.19	38
Brandon Tanev	13	0.17	0.07	0.10	1.00	346
Liam O'Brien	38	0.13	0.06	0.08	0.93	239

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Mikhail Sergachev	98	0.72	0.13	0.59	1.87	383
MacKenzie Weegar	52	0.47	0.10	0.37	2.11	419
John Marino	6	0.40	0.05	0.35	0.76	360
Nate Schmidt	88	0.28	0.06	0.21	1.07	410
Zac Jones	28	0.24	0.03	0.21	1.15	105
Nick DeSimone	57	0.22	0.05	0.17	0.92	98
Maveric Lamoureux	10	0.20	0.04	0.16	1.00	20
Andrew Peeke	26	0.19	0.04	0.15	1.04	365
Dmitri Simashev	26	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.93	28

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Karel Vejmelka	70	.8980	2.73	24.0	26.7	57:53	268
Sebastian Cossa	—	.8571	2.00	12.0	14.0	45:00	1
Jaxson Stauber	33	.8967	2.83	24.6	27.4	53:52	12

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Michael CarconeL79 gp$1.75M2 yrsUFA3117.7

Andrew PeekeD77 gp$1.00M1 yrUFA1414.0

Kailer YamamotoR59 gp$1.75M2 yrsUFA2313.1

Clayton KellerR82 gp$7.15M2 yrsUFA8812.3

Lawson CrouseL81 gp$4.30M1 yrUFA4410.2

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 1 · modeled projections

0 SOG · sorted by projection

No SOG lines were captured for this game.