Wed, Sep 16, 2026

Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

BUF Buffalo Sabres

vsMTLMontréal Canadiens

Last gameMay 18 · 7:30 PM ET

The model's read

a disagreement, not a correction

BUF's record is better than the model rates them

In points

#4/32

what happened

By our rating

#13/32

xG-Elo, walk-forward

Gap

-9

rank places

The rating is built from expected-goal margin, game by game, and never sees the standings. A gap means the chances a club generated and allowed point somewhere different from where its points did. Where the model disagrees most →

Record

82 games · regular season

W–L–OTL: 50 wins, 23 regulation losses, 9 overtime losses
Points: 109
Points rank: 4/32
Goal diff: +47

Strength rating

xG-Elo · walk-forward

Rating: 1509
League rank: 13/32
Games: 82

1500 is the baseline every club starts from and regresses toward between seasons, so above it is stronger than an average team and below it weaker. The rating is driven by model expected-goals margin rather than by results, which is why it can disagree with the standings — that disagreement is the reading at the top of this page.

Last 10 · results

OTLMay 18vsMTL2–3OT

WMay 16@MTL8–3

LMay 14vsMTL3–6

WMay 12@MTL3–2

LMay 10@MTL2–6

LMay 8vsMTL1–5

WMay 6vsMTL4–2

WMay 1@BOS4–1

OTLApr 28vsBOS1–2OT

WApr 26@BOS6–1

Current roster · per-game rates

31 skaters · 4 goalies

Five-season recency-weighted per-game rates · Sample = the games each rate rests on

Forwards	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Tage Thompson	72	0.99	0.50	0.48	3.37	397
Josh Norris	9	0.66	0.31	0.35	1.75	234
Jason Zucker	17	0.64	0.31	0.33	2.04	347
Josh Doan	91	0.60	0.27	0.33	2.04	157
Jack Quinn	22	0.59	0.23	0.36	2.08	273
Ryan McLeod	71	0.57	0.18	0.39	1.19	434
Zach Benson	6	0.55	0.19	0.36	1.70	224
Konsta Helenius	94	0.46	0.23	0.23	1.92	13
Noah Ostlund	86	0.43	0.18	0.25	0.99	71
Peyton Krebs	19	0.40	0.13	0.28	1.04	387
Jiri Kulich	20	0.39	0.24	0.15	2.02	75
Aidan McDonough	25	0.17	0.17	0.00	0.67	6
Justin Danforth	15	0.33	0.14	0.19	1.37	187
Conor Sheary	43	0.31	0.12	0.19	1.31	283
Trevor Kuntar	52	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1
Sam Carrick	10	0.22	0.11	0.11	1.05	357
Carson Meyer	49	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.90	41
Beck Malenstyn	29	0.18	0.08	0.10	0.91	276
Tyson Kozak	48	0.15	0.06	0.10	0.66	73
Jason Polin	14	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.44	13
Mason Geertsen	55	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.27	30

Defence	#	P	G	A	SOG	Sample
Rasmus Dahlin	26	0.92	0.24	0.68	2.69	402
Owen Power	25	0.42	0.08	0.33	1.48	337
Mattias Samuelsson	23	0.41	0.13	0.28	1.25	291
Olen Zellweger	51	0.31	0.10	0.21	1.68	167
Louis Crevier	46	0.28	0.09	0.19	1.32	134
Jack Rathbone	3	0.13	0.06	0.06	1.10	20
Conor Timmins	21	0.23	0.02	0.21	1.05	178
Dennis Gilbert	8	0.17	0.01	0.16	0.38	97
Zach Metsa	73	0.16	0.07	0.09	0.56	45
Ryan Johnson	33	0.12	0.00	0.12	0.69	47

Goalies	#	SV%	GA	SV	SA	TOI	Sample
Alex Lyon	34	.9044	2.52	23.7	26.2	53:45	141
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	1	.8994	2.71	24.2	26.9	57:24	192
Matt Villalta	31	.8791	2.75	20.0	22.8	48:00	3
Colten Ellis	92	.9033	2.75	25.7	28.4	56:57	16

How these rates are built — club is the player's current one; the rates span five seasons

Club membership is the NHL's current one, refreshed nightly — a player traded mid-season appears under the club he is with now, while the rates beside him span five seasons wherever he played them. Recency-weighted per-game averages; Sample is the games they rest on. Skaters are ordered by a rate shrunk toward the league average in proportion to how little a player has played, so a one-game sample does not out-rank a career — the figures shown are the unshrunk ones, and for anyone with a real sample the two are the same number. Save percentage is total saves over total shots, weighted — not the average of per-game save percentages, which would count a two-shot relief appearance as heavily as a forty-shot start.

Best cap efficiency · points per $1M

2026-27 cap · 2025-26 production

Noah OstlundC60 gp$0.89M1 yrRFA2730.5

Louis CrevierD78 gp$0.90M1 yrRFA2527.8

Conor ShearyL62 gp$0.85M1 yrUFA1821.2

Sam CarrickC73 gp$1.00M1 yrUFA1616.0

Jack QuinnR82 gp$3.38M1 yrRFA5115.1

A player measured against the season that earned his contract looks expensive, so recent signings sit low and entry-level deals sit high — by construction. All 32 clubs.

Markets · May 18 · modeled projections

0 BLK · sorted by projection

No BLK lines were captured for this game.