ODDPUCK
Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — per week, ranked league-wide by hits.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by hits

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
1
Jacob MelansonSEA · R37 sample
0.4
0.2
0.3
2.8
0.0
15.3
1.1
2.6
3
2
Kiefer SherwoodSJS · L1.19×
1.4
0.8
0.6
6.2
0.3
14.5
1.2
1.8
3
3
Yakov TreninMIN · C1.02×
0.8
0.3
0.5
3.6
0.0
12.3
1.4
1.6
3
4
Jeremy LauzonVGK · D1.09×
0.5
0.1
0.4
3.1
0.0
11.7
4.2
3.6
3
5
Marc GatcombVGK · C0.83×
0.5
0.3
0.2
3.3
0.0
11.6
1.6
0.7
3
6
Garnet HathawayFLA · R1.38×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.7
0.0
11.4
2.7
3.1
3
7
Martin PospisilCGY · C1.51×
0.8
0.2
0.6
4.0
0.1
11.2
1.0
3.3
3
8
Adam KlapkaCGY · R1.15×
0.7
0.3
0.4
3.2
0.1
11.0
2.0
4.1
3
9
Colton DachEDM · C1.10×
0.7
0.2
0.4
2.9
0.1
10.8
1.4
2.5
3
10
Will CuylleNYR · L1.10×
1.4
0.7
0.7
5.4
0.2
10.7
2.0
2.1
3
11
Sammy BlaisOTT · L1.13×
0.9
0.3
0.6
2.5
0.0
10.7
1.5
1.5
3
12
Nathan WalkerSTL · L0.92×
0.8
0.3
0.4
2.8
0.0
10.6
2.4
2.2
3
13
Dakota JoshuaTOR · C1.18×
1.0
0.5
0.5
3.0
0.0
10.5
1.6
2.5
3
14
Jack McBainUTA · C1.05×
1.0
0.4
0.6
3.7
0.0
10.5
1.8
3.0
3
15
Luke SchennVAN · D1.03×
0.4
0.1
0.3
2.8
0.0
10.5
3.7
2.5
3
16
Marcus FolignoMIN · L1.23×
1.0
0.5
0.5
3.4
0.1
10.5
2.1
3.4
3
17
Nicolas DeslauriersCAR · L1.40×
0.3
0.1
0.2
2.3
0.0
10.3
1.0
3.7
3
18
Michael PezzettaTOR · L1.19×
0.4
0.1
0.2
2.0
0.0
10.3
1.1
4.7
3
19
Mathieu OlivierCBJ · R1.16×
1.1
0.6
0.5
4.2
0.0
10.2
2.4
4.8
3
20
Keegan KolesarDET · R1.34×
0.7
0.3
0.4
2.6
0.0
10.1
1.6
1.9
3
21
Radko GudasFLA · D1.17×
0.7
0.1
0.6
3.5
0.0
9.8
5.6
3.7
3
22
Tanner JeannotBOS · L1.03×
0.8
0.3
0.5
3.1
0.0
9.8
2.0
3.2
3
23
Alex SteevesBOS · C0.96×
1.0
0.6
0.5
3.8
0.2
9.8
1.7
2.1
3
24
Liam O'BrienUTA · C1.48×
0.4
0.2
0.2
2.8
0.0
9.6
1.3
4.6
3
25
Ryan ReavesSJS · R1.28×
0.3
0.2
0.1
1.6
0.0
9.5
0.9
2.3
3
26
Lian BichselDAL · D1.14×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.0
0.0
9.5
2.2
2.7
3
27
Beck MalenstynBUF · L0.95×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.7
0.0
9.4
2.8
1.3
3
28
Connor CliftonBOS · D0.89×
0.5
0.1
0.4
2.6
0.0
9.2
4.7
2.6
3
29
Brady TkachukFLA · L1.38×
2.7
1.2
1.5
11.7
0.9
9.2
1.1
4.4
3
30
Matt RempeNYR · C1.03×
0.3
0.2
0.2
1.9
0.0
9.2
0.9
3.6
3
31
James MalatestaCBJ · L13 sample
0.9
0.4
0.5
2.9
0.1
9.1
1.1
1.1
3
32
William CarrierCAR · L1.38×
0.7
0.3
0.5
3.6
0.0
9.1
0.9
0.9
3
33
Vasily PodkolzinEDM · R1.15×
1.2
0.6
0.7
4.5
0.1
8.9
1.8
2.1
3
34
Michael Brandsegg-NygårdDET · R14 sample
0.3
0.0
0.3
4.3
0.0
8.8
0.8
0.5
3
35
Adam ErneDAL · L1.24×
0.6
0.4
0.2
2.9
0.0
8.8
1.4
1.2
3
36
Jeffrey VielTBL · L1.12×
0.7
0.3
0.5
4.0
0.0
8.8
1.3
5.3
3
37
Emil HeinemanNYI · L1.06×
1.1
0.7
0.3
5.3
0.2
8.8
1.8
0.7
3
38
Ross JohnstonSTL · L1.08×
0.5
0.1
0.4
1.5
0.0
8.8
1.0
5.0
3
39
Cole SmithCHI · R1.53×
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.1
0.0
8.8
1.1
2.4
3
40
Jonah GadjovichFLA · L1.34×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.6
0.0
8.7
1.3
4.8
3
41
Carl GrundstromPHI · R1.08×
0.7
0.4
0.3
4.3
0.0
8.7
1.2
1.2
3
42
Zachary L'HeureuxCOL · L0.94×
0.7
0.3
0.3
3.8
0.1
8.6
1.5
2.8
3
43
Simon BenoitPHI · D1.10×
0.3
0.0
0.3
2.4
0.0
8.5
4.7
2.0
3
44
Mark KastelicBOS · C1.10×
0.7
0.3
0.4
3.5
0.0
8.4
2.1
4.9
3
45
Arber XhekajMTL · D1.27×
0.3
0.1
0.2
2.5
0.0
8.4
2.2
5.4
3
46
Tom WilsonWSH · R1.16×
2.3
1.1
1.2
6.4
0.5
8.4
2.5
4.6
3
47
Samuel HeleniusLAK · C1.10×
0.5
0.3
0.2
2.0
0.0
8.3
1.0
2.7
3
48
Tye KartyeNYR · L1.21×
0.9
0.4
0.5
2.9
0.0
8.3
1.6
1.8
3
49
Hayden HodgsonOTT · R19 sample
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.7
0.0
8.3
0.3
3.5
3
50
Nikita OkhotiukCGY · D1.26×
0.6
0.1
0.5
3.0
0.0
8.3
4.2
2.5
3

The × badge is game-to-game variance against a random process at the same rate — under 1.00 steadier, over 1.00 streakier. Split-half reliability 0.20. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.