ODDPUCK
Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — per week, ranked league-wide by hits.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by hits

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
101
Jack St. IvanyWPG · D1.16×
0.7
0.0
0.7
2.4
0.0
6.7
3.6
1.4
3
102
Zack OstapchukSJS · C0.75×
0.3
0.2
0.2
2.0
0.0
6.7
1.4
2.3
3
103
Alexander RomanovNYI · D1.18×
0.7
0.1
0.6
4.2
0.0
6.7
6.6
1.1
3
104
Jansen HarkinsTBL · C1.20×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.6
0.0
6.7
1.6
1.4
3
105
Steven LorentzTOR · C1.35×
0.7
0.3
0.4
3.0
0.0
6.7
1.9
0.6
3
106
Dylan HollowaySTL · L1.10×
2.2
0.9
1.2
6.9
0.4
6.7
1.9
0.9
3
107
Jacob TroubaSJS · D1.18×
1.0
0.3
0.8
5.7
0.0
6.6
6.6
1.9
3
108
Zack MacEwenTOR · C1.14×
0.4
0.2
0.2
3.3
0.0
6.6
1.1
3.6
3
109
Neal PionkWPG · D1.29×
1.2
0.3
0.9
5.5
0.3
6.6
4.4
2.1
3
110
Marco KasperDET · C1.30×
0.9
0.5
0.5
5.1
0.1
6.6
1.9
1.3
3
111
Luke KuninFLA · C0.97×
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.4
0.1
6.5
2.5
2.5
3
112
Brandon DuhaimeTOR · R1.25×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.8
0.0
6.5
2.1
3.0
3
113
Carson MeyerBUF · R1.10×
0.5
0.2
0.3
3.0
0.0
6.5
0.9
0.9
3
114
Joe VelenoNYR · C1.09×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.8
0.0
6.5
1.5
0.8
3
115
Erik CernakTBL · D1.32×
0.6
0.1
0.5
2.8
0.0
6.5
4.5
2.8
3
116
Cole ReinhardtFLA · L1.43×
0.7
0.4
0.3
2.5
0.0
6.5
0.8
1.3
3
117
J.T. MillerNYR · C1.24×
2.8
0.9
1.9
6.5
1.0
6.5
1.8
1.8
3
118
Cale FleurySEA · D1.53×
0.4
0.1
0.3
3.0
0.0
6.5
4.6
0.7
3
119
Brennan OthmannCGY · L1.30×
0.4
0.2
0.2
2.6
0.1
6.5
1.2
1.2
3
120
Jake NeighboursSTL · L1.30×
1.6
0.7
0.8
4.2
0.4
6.4
1.7
1.9
3
121
Joshua BrownEDM · D1.15×
0.5
0.1
0.3
2.7
0.0
6.4
4.9
3.7
3
122
Kaiden GuhleMTL · D1.32×
1.0
0.2
0.8
3.3
0.0
6.3
5.9
3.5
3
123
Sam BennettFLA · C1.44×
2.2
1.1
1.1
8.4
0.5
6.3
1.5
3.6
3
124
Jayden StrubleMTL · D0.98×
0.6
0.1
0.5
1.8
0.0
6.3
2.1
2.9
3
125
Bobby McMannSEA · C1.07×
1.6
0.9
0.6
6.8
0.2
6.3
1.0
1.7
3
126
Anton BlidhNYR · L1.21×
0.7
0.1
0.6
2.9
0.0
6.3
0.7
1.0
3
127
Jason PolinBUF · R13 sample
0.3
0.2
0.1
1.8
0.0
6.3
1.8
0.4
3
128
Scott LaughtonLAK · C1.16×
1.1
0.5
0.6
4.9
0.1
6.3
2.0
1.5
3
129
Matthew KniesTOR · L1.10×
2.2
0.9
1.3
5.4
0.5
6.3
1.4
1.3
3
130
Dylan McIlrathWSH · D0.96×
0.2
0.0
0.2
1.5
0.0
6.2
2.3
3.5
3
131
Casey CizikasNYI · C1.35×
0.7
0.3
0.4
3.3
0.0
6.2
2.3
1.3
3
132
Josh AndersonMTL · R1.42×
1.0
0.6
0.4
4.4
0.0
6.2
1.7
3.7
3
133
Andre LeeLAK · L26 sample
0.7
0.3
0.4
2.7
0.0
6.2
1.5
1.0
3
134
Boone JennerWSH · C1.26×
1.8
0.8
1.1
6.8
0.2
6.2
3.0
1.7
3
135
Blake ColemanMIN · L1.11×
1.6
0.8
0.8
7.4
0.1
6.1
2.1
2.0
3
136
Ryan LombergCBJ · L1.49×
0.5
0.2
0.3
3.0
0.0
6.1
0.8
2.9
3
137
Mathieu JosephEDM · R1.08×
0.8
0.2
0.6
3.2
0.0
6.1
2.0
1.3
3
138
MacKenzie EntwistleFLA · R0.94×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.7
0.0
6.1
1.4
1.6
3
139
Moritz SeiderDET · D1.52×
1.9
0.3
1.6
6.2
0.9
6.1
6.7
1.8
3
140
John HaydenSEA · C1.40×
0.3
0.2
0.1
3.0
0.0
6.1
2.3
3.8
3
141
Ben JonesCGY · C1.04×
0.3
0.1
0.2
2.8
0.0
6.0
1.2
0.4
3
142
Walker DuehrWPG · R0.80×
0.5
0.3
0.3
2.5
0.0
6.0
1.4
0.3
3
143
Conor GeekieTBL · C1.13×
0.7
0.3
0.4
2.9
0.1
6.0
1.4
1.3
3
144
Jesper BoqvistNJD · C1.14×
0.7
0.3
0.4
2.9
0.0
6.0
1.2
0.5
3
145
Connor DewarPIT · C1.27×
0.9
0.5
0.5
3.9
0.0
6.0
1.8
0.9
3
146
Peyton KrebsBUF · C1.13×
1.2
0.4
0.8
3.1
0.1
6.0
1.3
2.7
3
147
Dennis GilbertBUF · D1.21×
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.2
0.0
6.0
3.8
3.2
3
148
Zachary BolducMTL · R1.08×
1.2
0.5
0.7
4.0
0.3
5.9
1.5
1.6
3
149
Jordan GreenwayCHI · L1.09×
0.7
0.3
0.5
3.1
0.0
5.9
2.0
2.5
3
150
Tim BerniCBJ · D1.40×
0.3
0.1
0.2
3.2
0.0
5.9
3.6
1.7
3

The × badge is game-to-game variance against a random process at the same rate — under 1.00 steadier, over 1.00 streakier. Split-half reliability 0.20. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.