Thu, Dec 11, 2025
Archived sheet
2 of 13 games had posted player lines
Archived Anytime goal
13 games · 27 props. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
13 games · 27 G props · sorted by projection
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(G = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
40%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
36%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
33%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
17%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.6
P(over)
44%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
35%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
25%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
12%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators
8:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild
8:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Boston Bruins at Winnipeg Jets
8:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers
9:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche
9:30 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Buffalo Sabres at Vancouver Canucks
10:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.