Sat, Apr 11, 2026
Archived sheet
2 of 15 games had posted player lines
Archived Hits
15 games · 27 props. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
15 games · 27 HITS props · sorted by projection
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(HITS = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins
12:30 PM ETGame page
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders
1:00 PM ETGame page
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins
3:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
4:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
New York Rangers at Dallas Stars
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Carolina Hurricanes at Utah Mammoth
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Montréal Canadiens
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche
8:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks
10:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.