Sat, Apr 11, 2026
Archived sheet
2 of 15 games had posted player lines
Archived Shots on goal
15 games · 27 props. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
15 games · 27 SOG props · sorted by projection
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(SOG = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins
12:30 PM ETGame page
Line
2.5
Proj
3.1
P(over)
58%
Line
3.5
Proj
3.0
P(over)
35%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.9
P(over)
55%
Line
3.5
Proj
2.6
P(over)
28%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.2
P(over)
38%
Line
1.5
Proj
2.1
P(over)
60%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.0
P(over)
34%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.9
P(over)
56%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.9
P(over)
54%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.8
P(over)
53%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.7
P(over)
49%
Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders
1:00 PM ETGame page
Line
2.5
Proj
3.0
P(over)
57%
Line
3.5
Proj
2.6
P(over)
27%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.5
P(over)
46%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.4
P(over)
43%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.4
P(over)
42%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.2
P(over)
38%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.0
P(over)
32%
Line
2.5
Proj
1.9
P(over)
31%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.8
P(over)
51%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.7
P(over)
50%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.7
P(over)
49%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.6
P(over)
47%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.6
P(over)
46%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.6
P(over)
46%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.6
P(over)
45%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.6
P(over)
45%
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins
3:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
4:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Minnesota Wild at Nashville Predators
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
New York Rangers at Dallas Stars
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Carolina Hurricanes at Utah Mammoth
5:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Montréal Canadiens
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche
8:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks
10:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.