ODDPUCK
Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — per week, ranked league-wide by hits.

Sort by

Over

Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by hits

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
151
Nick CousinsOTT · C1.21×
0.8
0.3
0.5
3.4
0.0
5.9
1.5
2.9
3
152
Sandis VilmanisFLA · L19 sample
0.8
0.5
0.3
2.5
0.0
5.9
0.9
0.7
3
153
Owen TippettPHI · R1.48×
1.8
0.9
0.9
8.2
0.3
5.9
2.0
0.9
3
154
Nic DowdVGK · C1.58×
0.9
0.3
0.5
2.9
0.0
5.9
2.6
2.3
3
155
Jacob QuillanTOR · C24 sample
0.4
0.1
0.3
1.9
0.0
5.8
1.7
0.3
3
156
Ben ChiarotDET · D1.24×
0.6
0.2
0.4
4.0
0.0
5.8
5.8
2.5
3
157
Darnell NurseSJS · D1.56×
1.0
0.3
0.8
6.5
0.1
5.8
6.0
3.3
3
158
Mattias SamuelssonBUF · D1.56×
1.2
0.4
0.8
3.8
0.0
5.8
5.5
1.1
3
159
Parker WotherspoonVGK · D1.22×
0.9
0.1
0.8
2.5
0.0
5.8
4.2
1.9
3
160
Braden SchneiderNYR · D1.21×
0.7
0.1
0.6
3.5
0.0
5.8
5.1
0.9
3
161
Eetu LuostarinenFLA · C1.21×
1.3
0.4
0.8
4.1
0.1
5.8
2.3
1.3
3
162
Nolan FootePHI · L36 sample
0.4
0.3
0.1
3.2
0.0
5.7
1.0
1.0
3
163
Niko MikkolaFLA · D1.34×
0.6
0.2
0.4
3.4
0.0
5.7
3.7
2.6
3
164
Nikita NesterenkoANA · C0.81×
0.9
0.3
0.7
3.4
0.0
5.7
0.9
0.7
3
165
Emil LillebergTBL · D1.12×
0.7
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.0
5.7
2.7
3.4
3
166
Adam EdstromNSH · C1.00×
0.5
0.3
0.2
2.5
0.0
5.6
1.9
0.8
3
167
Morgan BarronWPG · C1.16×
0.8
0.4
0.4
4.0
0.0
5.6
1.7
1.1
3
168
Jaroslav ChmelarNYR · R28 sample
0.7
0.4
0.2
2.5
0.0
5.6
1.7
1.2
3
169
Brett HowdenVGK · C1.27×
1.4
0.8
0.5
4.0
0.1
5.6
1.6
1.8
3
170
Elias PetterssonVAN · D1.17×
0.4
0.1
0.3
2.0
0.0
5.5
3.3
1.7
3
171
Fraser MintenBOS · C1.26×
1.1
0.6
0.6
4.1
0.1
5.5
1.8
0.7
3
172
Barclay GoodrowSJS · C1.07×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.6
0.0
5.5
2.5
2.8
3
173
Vincent DesharnaisWSH · D1.07×
0.3
0.0
0.3
1.8
0.0
5.5
4.8
3.2
3
174
Alex OvechkinWSH · L1.68×
2.6
1.4
1.2
9.8
0.8
5.5
0.7
0.9
3
175
Samuel HonzekCGY · L23 sample
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.7
0.0
5.5
1.1
0.5
3
176
Dmitry KulikovFLA · D1.13×
0.5
0.1
0.4
2.8
0.0
5.5
3.2
1.8
3
177
Brayden McNabbVGK · D1.11×
0.8
0.2
0.6
3.5
0.0
5.5
6.7
1.5
3
178
Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI · C1.27×
1.4
0.6
0.9
3.9
0.1
5.4
2.3
0.5
3
179
Noel AcciariPHI · C1.24×
0.8
0.4
0.4
3.7
0.0
5.4
3.3
1.1
3
180
Martin FehérváryWSH · D1.33×
0.9
0.2
0.7
2.9
0.0
5.4
6.0
1.3
3
181
Gabriel LandeskogCOL · L1.60×
2.0
0.9
1.1
7.0
0.4
5.4
1.7
2.5
3
182
Fabian ZetterlundOTT · L1.16×
1.3
0.6
0.6
5.6
0.3
5.4
1.8
0.7
3
183
Mackie SamoskevichSEA · R1.30×
1.2
0.5
0.7
5.9
0.4
5.4
1.3
1.0
3
184
Timo MeierNJD · R1.39×
1.9
1.0
0.9
10.1
0.5
5.4
2.1
1.5
3
185
Donovan SebrangoFLA · D0.84×
0.6
0.0
0.6
2.4
0.0
5.3
2.2
4.7
3
186
Justin DanforthBUF · R1.00×
1.0
0.4
0.6
4.1
0.0
5.3
2.2
1.0
3
187
Frank VatranoANA · R1.21×
1.3
0.7
0.6
7.2
0.2
5.3
2.2
2.6
3
188
Adam SykoraNYR · L11 sample
1.1
0.8
0.3
4.2
0.0
5.3
2.7
1.4
3
189
Riley StillmanEDM · D1.07×
0.4
0.1
0.3
1.9
0.0
5.3
2.6
1.9
3
190
Kyle MacLeanNYI · C0.87×
0.4
0.1
0.3
2.3
0.0
5.3
1.1
1.4
3
191
Brian HalonenBOS · L19 sample
0.4
0.2
0.2
1.7
0.0
5.3
0.6
1.6
3
192
Parker FordWPG · C18 sample
0.3
0.1
0.2
2.2
0.0
5.3
2.3
0.9
3
193
Colton SissonsTOR · C1.13×
0.8
0.3
0.5
3.5
0.1
5.2
2.4
1.1
3
194
Jake McCabeTOR · D1.14×
1.0
0.2
0.8
3.1
0.0
5.2
6.6
2.1
3
195
Jared DavidsonMTL · C10 sample
0.4
0.1
0.3
2.9
0.0
5.2
0.5
2.9
3
196
Alexander PetrovicFLA · D1.36×
0.5
0.1
0.4
3.0
0.0
5.2
3.9
2.3
3
197
Mario FerraroWPG · D1.22×
0.8
0.2
0.6
3.5
0.0
5.2
5.6
1.5
3
198
Maxim TsyplakovCGY · R1.45×
0.7
0.2
0.5
3.4
0.1
5.2
1.0
0.9
3
199
Nick BjugstadNJD · C1.28×
0.8
0.4
0.4
4.7
0.1
5.2
1.6
1.5
3
200
Sam ColangeloANA · R1.25×
0.9
0.7
0.1
3.5
0.1
5.2
1.2
0.7
3

The × badge is game-to-game variance against a random process at the same rate — under 1.00 steadier, over 1.00 streakier. Split-half reliability 0.20. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.