ODDPUCK
Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — per week, ranked league-wide by hits.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by hits

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
51
Paul CotterVAN · L1.25×
0.7
0.4
0.3
2.9
0.0
8.2
1.0
1.3
3
52
Jeff MalottANA · L0.98×
0.4
0.1
0.3
2.7
0.0
8.1
1.5
3.0
3
53
Tim WasheANA · C1.03×
0.4
0.1
0.2
2.4
0.0
8.1
2.0
1.1
3
54
Vincent TrocheckUTA · C1.31×
2.4
0.8
1.5
6.4
0.7
8.0
2.5
2.3
3
55
Cole KoepkeWPG · L1.21×
0.7
0.4
0.4
3.7
0.0
7.9
0.9
0.7
3
56
Lawson CrouseUTA · L1.34×
1.4
0.8
0.6
5.3
0.1
7.9
1.9
1.6
3
57
Trent FredericEDM · C1.14×
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.6
0.0
7.9
1.3
2.5
3
58
Lane PedersonLAK · C1.21×
0.4
0.1
0.2
1.7
0.0
7.8
1.6
1.2
3
59
Brandon TanevUTA · L1.35×
0.5
0.2
0.3
3.0
0.0
7.8
2.7
2.0
3
60
Bokondji ImamaFLA · L33 sample
0.2
0.2
0.1
2.0
0.0
7.7
1.1
5.2
3
61
Nick FolignoMIN · L1.00×
1.1
0.4
0.7
3.6
0.2
7.6
1.6
2.2
3
62
Alex LaferriereLAK · R1.28×
1.5
0.7
0.9
7.3
0.2
7.6
1.7
0.8
3
63
A.J. GreerANA · L1.06×
0.9
0.5
0.5
3.5
0.0
7.6
1.2
4.2
3
64
Brenden DillonNJD · D0.96×
0.6
0.1
0.5
2.2
0.0
7.6
3.9
3.0
3
65
Eeli TolvanenSEA · R1.19×
1.4
0.6
0.8
5.4
0.4
7.6
2.8
1.0
3
66
Porter MartonePHI · R19 sample
2.3
0.9
1.4
8.5
0.8
7.5
1.0
1.9
3
67
Nikita ZadorovBOS · D1.16×
0.8
0.2
0.7
4.0
0.0
7.5
3.6
5.7
3
68
Zachary Aston-ReesePHI · C1.50×
0.6
0.2
0.4
3.1
0.0
7.5
2.0
1.1
3
69
Ozzy WiesblattNSH · C1.22×
0.4
0.1
0.3
2.0
0.0
7.4
1.4
2.6
3
70
Jordan StaalCAR · C1.44×
1.4
0.7
0.7
4.6
0.1
7.4
1.8
1.2
3
71
Kyle BurroughsDAL · D1.25×
0.3
0.1
0.3
2.2
0.0
7.3
3.8
3.2
3
72
Aatu RätyVAN · C1.11×
0.7
0.3
0.4
3.0
0.0
7.3
0.7
1.1
3
73
Dryden HuntCGY · L1.35×
0.7
0.2
0.5
3.3
0.0
7.3
1.2
1.4
3
74
Max JonesEDM · L1.07×
0.7
0.3
0.3
3.4
0.0
7.3
0.7
2.0
3
75
Scott SabourinTBL · R39 sample
0.6
0.1
0.4
1.3
0.0
7.3
1.3
9.2
3
76
Nathan BastianDAL · R1.21×
0.6
0.3
0.2
2.6
0.0
7.3
1.2
1.8
3
77
Noah JuulsenCOL · D1.10×
0.5
0.1
0.4
1.6
0.0
7.2
3.5
1.1
3
78
MacKenzie WeegarUTA · D1.20×
1.4
0.3
1.1
6.3
0.4
7.2
6.5
2.4
3
79
Josh MansonCOL · D1.24×
1.1
0.2
0.9
4.8
0.0
7.2
3.8
3.1
3
80
Zemgus GirgensonsTBL · C1.02×
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.4
0.0
7.2
1.9
1.3
3
81
Ty DellandreaSJS · C1.13×
0.6
0.1
0.5
3.0
0.0
7.1
2.0
1.9
3
82
Dylan CozensOTT · C1.41×
2.0
0.9
1.1
7.3
0.7
7.1
1.1
2.1
3
83
Michael McCarronMIN · C0.93×
0.7
0.3
0.4
3.9
0.0
7.0
2.8
3.5
3
84
Evander KaneVAN · L1.21×
1.5
0.7
0.8
7.6
0.2
7.0
1.2
4.2
3
85
Andreas EnglundCGY · D1.38×
0.3
0.1
0.3
1.6
0.0
7.0
3.0
3.3
3
86
Andrei SvechnikovCAR · R1.22×
2.4
1.1
1.3
7.8
0.9
7.0
0.8
2.8
3
87
Bo GroulxTOR · C0.77×
0.7
0.4
0.3
2.9
0.0
7.0
1.7
0.7
3
88
Mitchell ChaffeeNYI · R1.38×
0.7
0.4
0.3
2.8
0.1
6.9
1.2
0.9
3
89
Tyson KozakBUF · C1.01×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.0
0.0
6.9
2.5
0.2
3
90
Curtis LazarEDM · C0.95×
0.5
0.2
0.3
2.3
0.0
6.9
1.6
0.9
3
91
Ross ColtonNSH · C1.23×
1.2
0.5
0.7
6.0
0.1
6.9
1.4
1.2
3
92
Parker KellyCOL · C1.42×
1.0
0.5
0.5
3.7
0.0
6.9
2.2
1.4
3
93
Pavol RegendaSJS · L0.94×
1.2
1.0
0.2
5.1
0.4
6.9
1.0
2.3
3
94
Tyler PitlickMIN · C1.01×
0.3
0.2
0.1
2.6
0.0
6.8
1.7
1.6
3
95
Reid SchaeferNSH · L0.96×
0.5
0.4
0.1
2.5
0.0
6.8
1.9
1.1
3
96
Alexey ToropchenkoSTL · R1.05×
0.6
0.3
0.4
3.4
0.0
6.8
2.3
1.2
3
97
Adam LowryWPG · C1.44×
1.1
0.4
0.7
3.8
0.0
6.8
2.2
1.6
3
98
Ivan BarbashevVGK · L1.64×
2.0
0.8
1.2
4.8
0.2
6.8
1.4
0.8
3
99
Brayden PachalCGY · D1.24×
0.5
0.1
0.4
2.5
0.0
6.7
3.3
3.4
3
100
Brayden SchennNYI · C1.44×
1.7
0.7
1.0
5.0
0.3
6.7
1.7
2.6
3

The × badge is game-to-game variance against a random process at the same rate — under 1.00 steadier, over 1.00 streakier. Split-half reliability 0.20. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.