ODDPUCK
Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — over a full regular season, ranked league-wide by hits.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by hits

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
151
Sandis VilmanisFLA · L19 sample
22.4
13.0
9.4
68.0
0.4
160.8
23.9
18.4
82
152
Nick CousinsOTT · C1.21×
22.6
8.6
14.0
92.5
0.2
160.6
40.4
78.7
82
153
Owen TippettPHI · R1.48×
49.1
25.8
23.4
222.8
7.3
160.6
55.3
23.8
82
154
Nic DowdVGK · C1.58×
23.5
9.7
13.8
80.5
0.1
160.3
71.9
62.9
82
155
Jacob QuillanTOR · C24 sample
11.6
3.9
7.7
52.2
0.3
159.7
46.3
8.3
82
156
Ben ChiarotDET · D1.24×
16.1
5.0
11.2
109.1
0.4
159.3
157.9
69.7
82
157
Darnell NurseSJS · D1.56×
28.4
7.4
21.0
178.2
1.4
158.5
163.7
89.6
82
158
Mattias SamuelssonBUF · D1.56×
33.9
10.7
23.2
102.7
0.3
158.5
151.2
29.6
82
159
Parker WotherspoonVGK · D1.22×
23.9
2.3
21.6
69.5
0.1
158.1
115.6
52.4
82
160
Braden SchneiderNYR · D1.21×
18.9
3.7
15.2
96.6
0.1
157.8
139.7
24.0
82
161
Eetu LuostarinenFLA · C1.21×
34.5
11.9
22.6
110.9
1.5
157.3
63.1
36.6
82
162
Nolan FootePHI · L36 sample
11.3
7.6
3.7
86.5
0.4
156.2
27.5
28.4
82
163
Nikita NesterenkoANA · C0.81×
25.1
7.0
18.2
92.5
0.2
156.1
24.4
18.6
82
164
Niko MikkolaFLA · D1.34×
16.7
4.7
12.0
91.5
0.3
156.1
101.3
70.1
82
165
Emil LillebergTBL · D1.12×
17.8
3.5
14.3
60.3
0.1
155.0
72.8
93.7
82
166
Adam EdstromNSH · C1.00×
13.3
7.9
5.5
69.3
0.1
154.1
51.5
21.0
82
167
Morgan BarronWPG · C1.16×
23.0
11.1
11.9
109.8
0.2
153.7
45.5
29.7
82
168
Jaroslav ChmelarNYR · R28 sample
18.3
11.8
6.5
69.5
0.3
153.3
47.6
32.5
82
169
Brett HowdenVGK · C1.27×
36.9
22.4
14.5
109.6
1.7
153.0
42.5
48.4
82
170
Elias PetterssonVAN · D1.17×
11.5
3.5
8.0
55.1
0.1
151.2
90.5
46.3
82
171
Fraser MintenBOS · C1.26×
31.0
15.2
15.7
112.1
2.9
150.3
49.8
17.9
82
172
Barclay GoodrowSJS · C1.07×
13.9
6.3
7.6
71.9
0.2
150.1
67.2
75.4
82
173
Vincent DesharnaisWSH · D1.07×
9.7
1.1
8.6
48.5
0.1
150.0
130.8
86.4
82
174
Alex OvechkinWSH · L1.68×
71.5
38.4
33.1
268.1
23.1
149.9
19.2
25.6
82
175
Samuel HonzekCGY · L23 sample
17.0
8.3
8.7
101.4
0.4
149.6
29.8
13.3
82
176
Brayden McNabbVGK · D1.11×
22.1
5.0
17.0
95.0
0.1
149.3
181.8
42.2
82
177
Dmitry KulikovFLA · D1.13×
14.5
3.3
11.2
75.4
0.1
149.1
86.3
49.2
82
178
Jean-Gabriel PageauNYI · C1.27×
39.7
16.3
23.4
105.6
3.4
147.9
61.7
12.5
82
179
Noel AcciariPHI · C1.24×
22.1
11.0
11.1
99.9
0.1
147.8
89.3
30.2
82
180
Martin FehérváryWSH · D1.33×
25.5
5.4
20.1
78.6
0.1
147.8
162.7
34.4
82
181
Gabriel LandeskogCOL · L1.60×
54.2
23.5
30.7
190.9
10.7
146.9
47.4
67.6
82
182
Fabian ZetterlundOTT · L1.16×
34.6
17.0
17.6
153.4
8.1
146.9
48.2
18.0
82
183
Mackie SamoskevichSEA · R1.30×
33.7
13.7
20.1
162.2
10.9
146.9
35.2
26.8
82
184
Timo MeierNJD · R1.39×
53.1
28.1
25.0
275.7
13.3
146.7
58.8
41.2
82
185
Donovan SebrangoFLA · D0.84×
15.8
0.3
15.4
64.5
0.2
145.8
61.2
127.6
82
186
Justin DanforthBUF · R1.00×
27.0
11.6
15.4
112.3
0.9
145.3
61.1
27.6
82
187
Frank VatranoANA · R1.21×
35.2
18.7
16.6
197.0
6.5
145.1
61.0
72.0
82
188
Adam SykoraNYR · L11 sample
30.5
21.7
8.8
113.4
0.7
145.1
74.0
37.5
82
189
Riley StillmanEDM · D1.07×
10.7
2.0
8.6
52.0
0.5
144.6
72.4
51.8
82
190
Kyle MacLeanNYI · C0.87×
11.6
4.0
7.5
62.1
0.1
144.2
30.7
38.5
82
191
Brian HalonenBOS · L19 sample
11.5
5.5
6.0
47.3
0.5
144.0
15.6
44.4
82
192
Parker FordWPG · C18 sample
9.2
3.1
6.0
59.0
0.5
144.0
62.4
25.7
82
193
Jared DavidsonMTL · C10 sample
10.9
1.3
9.6
78.9
0.7
143.3
13.6
78.2
82
194
Colton SissonsTOR · C1.13×
22.5
8.9
13.6
95.3
3.0
143.3
66.0
30.8
82
195
Jake McCabeTOR · D1.14×
26.8
4.8
22.0
83.6
0.3
143.2
179.2
58.2
82
196
Maxim TsyplakovCGY · R1.45×
20.3
6.6
13.7
94.1
1.5
142.9
26.7
24.1
82
197
Mario FerraroWPG · D1.22×
20.9
5.9
15.1
94.2
0.1
142.9
153.8
39.8
82
198
Alexander PetrovicFLA · D1.36×
13.6
3.2
10.4
80.9
0.1
142.9
106.2
61.8
82
199
Sam ColangeloANA · R1.25×
23.6
19.7
3.9
94.5
3.4
142.5
33.2
18.4
82
200
Nick BjugstadNJD · C1.28×
22.3
11.8
10.4
128.9
1.4
142.3
43.1
40.6
82

The × badge is game-to-game variance against a random process at the same rate — under 1.00 steadier, over 1.00 streakier. Split-half reliability 0.20. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.