Fri, Jan 9, 2026
Archived sheet
3 of 3 games had posted player lines
Archived Power-play points
3 games · 46 props. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
3 games · 46 PPP props · sorted by projection
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(PPP = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks
8:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Los Angeles Kings at Winnipeg Jets
8:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
14%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth
9:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
13%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
11%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
10%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
9%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
8%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
7%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
6%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.1
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.0
P(over)
5%
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.