Projections

Every headline stat per skater — per week, ranked league-wide by shots.

Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by shots

#

Skater

PTS

G

A

SOG

PPP

HIT

BLK

PIM

Proj GP

1

Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C

4.6

1.7

2.8

13.1

1.3

2.2

1.7

1.5

3

2

Auston MatthewsTOR · C

3.1

1.6

1.6

11.9

0.9

2.9

3.9

0.9

3

3

Brady TkachukFLA · L

2.7

1.2

1.5

11.7

0.9

9.2

1.1

4.4

3

4

Jack HughesNJD · C

3.6

1.4

2.3

11.5

1.2

0.3

1.4

0.6

3

5

David PastrnakBOS · R

3.8

1.4

2.4

11.4

1.1

3.1

1.1

2.3

3

6

Connor McDavidEDM · C

4.9

1.5

3.4

10.6

1.8

2.4

1.3

1.4

3

7

Macklin CelebriniSJS · C

3.7

1.5

2.3

10.3

1.1

1.9

2.0

1.5

3

8

Zach WerenskiCBJ · D

3.0

0.8

2.2

10.3

0.8

1.1

4.3

0.9

3

9

Kirill KaprizovMIN · L

3.6

1.7

1.9

10.3

1.3

2.2

1.4

1.2

3

10

Timo MeierNJD · R

1.9

1.0

0.9

10.1

0.5

5.4

2.1

1.5

3

11

Tage ThompsonBUF · C

3.0

1.5

1.4

10.1

0.9

3.1

1.5

1.7

3

12

Kyle ConnorWPG · L

3.3

1.4

1.9

10.1

0.8

1.2

1.0

0.6

3

13

Matt BoldyMIN · L

3.0

1.4

1.6

10.0

1.0

2.4

2.1

1.4

3

14

Jack EichelVGK · C

3.4

1.0

2.4

9.9

1.1

1.7

2.3

0.8

3

15

Filip ForsbergNSH · L

2.9

1.4

1.4

9.8

1.0

5.0

1.5

1.4

3

16

Alex OvechkinWSH · L

2.6

1.4

1.2

9.8

0.8

5.5

0.7

0.9

3

17

Alex DeBrincatDET · R

2.8

1.4

1.4

9.8

0.9

1.7

1.4

0.9

3

18

Nikita KucherovTBL · R

4.7

1.5

3.3

9.7

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.8

3

19

Cutter GauthierANA · L

2.4

1.3

1.1

9.7

0.7

3.1

1.1

1.0

3

20

Jason RobertsonDAL · L

3.2

1.5

1.8

9.6

1.2

2.1

1.4

0.9

3

21

Bo HorvatNYI · C

2.4

1.2

1.1

9.4

0.6

2.7

1.6

1.3

3

22

Cole CaufieldMTL · R

2.8

1.5

1.3

9.3

1.0

2.3

0.8

0.5

3

23

Nazem KadriCOL · C

2.2

0.9

1.4

9.1

0.8

2.2

1.1

1.7

3

24

Dylan LarkinDET · C

2.7

1.3

1.4

9.1

1.0

1.9

1.3

1.8

3

25

Matthew TkachukFLA · L

3.3

1.2

2.1

9.1

1.2

4.6

0.9

4.0

3

26

Dylan GuentherUTA · R

2.6

1.4

1.3

9.0

1.0

2.6

1.3

1.1

3

27

Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C

2.2

0.9

1.3

9.0

0.7

5.1

1.9

1.6

3

28

Connor BedardCHI · C

2.9

1.1

1.8

8.8

1.0

1.6

1.2

2.2

3

29

Leon DraisaitlEDM · C

4.4

1.7

2.7

8.8

1.7

1.9

1.1

1.4

3

30

William NylanderTOR · R

3.4

1.5

1.9

8.8

1.0

0.8

1.1

0.9

3

31

Zach HymanEDM · L

2.4

1.5

1.0

8.8

0.7

4.4

1.1

1.5

3

32

Roman JosiNSH · D

2.5

0.6

1.9

8.7

1.1

1.6

5.0

1.3

3

33

Artemi PanarinLAK · L

3.4

1.2

2.1

8.7

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.8

3

34

Adrian KempeLAK · R

2.7

1.3

1.4

8.7

0.6

4.5

1.4

2.0

3

35

Anton FrondellCHI · C12 sample

2.2

0.7

1.4

8.7

0.5

2.1

3.2

1.0

3

36

Jake GuentzelTBL · C

3.2

1.4

1.8

8.6

1.1

1.6

1.6

1.9

3

37

Cale MakarCOL · D

3.1

0.9

2.2

8.6

1.2

1.7

5.0

0.8

3

38

Kevin FialaLAK · L

2.4

1.1

1.3

8.5

1.0

2.4

1.1

1.8

3

39

Porter MartonePHI · R19 sample

2.3

0.9

1.4

8.5

0.8

7.5

1.0

1.9

3

40

Sam BennettFLA · C

2.2

1.1

1.1

8.4

0.5

6.3

1.5

3.6

3

41

Pavel DorofeyevNYR · R

2.1

1.3

0.8

8.4

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.8

3

42

Clayton KellerUTA · R

3.2

1.0

2.1

8.3

1.1

0.5

1.2

1.3

3

43

Dougie HamiltonNJD · D

1.7

0.5

1.2

8.3

0.6

3.4

3.3

1.9

3

44

Seth JarvisCAR · R

2.5

1.2

1.4

8.2

0.8

4.2

1.7

0.8

3

45

Sidney CrosbyPIT · C

3.3

1.3

2.0

8.2

1.0

2.8

1.5

1.7

3

46

Carter VerhaegheFLA · C

2.3

1.0

1.3

8.2

0.6

3.1

0.9

1.4

3

47

Owen TippettPHI · R

1.8

0.9

0.9

8.2

0.3

5.9

2.0

0.9

3

48

Brandon HagelTBL · L

3.0

1.4

1.6

8.1

0.4

2.3

1.8

2.5

3

49

Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · R

2.5

1.1

1.4

8.1

0.8

2.3

1.6

1.0

3

50

Brandon MontourSEA · D

1.6

0.6

1.0

8.1

0.5

3.6

3.6

2.4

3

No consistency figure for shots: it did not clear the nightly split-half-vs-Poisson gate. The gate withholds a figure both when a stat is measurably no better than chance and when the evidence is too split to call, and those are not separable from here — so read this as no published measure, not as a finding that shots is inconsistent. Sort by another stat to see it where it holds. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.