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Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — over a full regular season, ranked league-wide by points.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by points

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
201
Luke HughesNJD · D
45.3
7.8
37.5
161.0
17.9
23.3
63.6
30.9
82
202
Anders LeeUTA · L
45.2
22.5
22.7
206.3
8.7
113.1
41.0
46.0
82
203
Jaden SchwartzCOL · C
45.2
21.3
23.9
165.6
8.3
53.6
51.9
20.8
82
204
Zach BensonBUF · L
45.2
15.8
29.3
139.3
5.9
51.0
32.4
88.9
82
205
Ryan LeonardWSH · R
45.1
20.1
25.0
164.1
13.7
135.6
28.9
52.4
82
206
Thomas ChabotOTT · D
44.8
10.2
34.5
166.9
10.5
61.6
152.4
32.3
82
207
Marcus JohanssonMIN · L
44.4
15.7
28.7
124.2
9.3
52.6
26.7
13.9
82
208
Dmitri VoronkovCBJ · L
44.3
22.8
21.5
154.1
11.4
111.7
43.5
68.8
82
209
Morgan RiellyTOR · D
44.2
10.3
33.9
150.3
11.3
50.8
128.3
28.3
82
210
Matvei GridinCGY · R37 sample
44.1
13.3
30.8
154.5
15.3
26.4
62.2
5.4
82
211
Thomas HarleyDAL · D
43.9
10.7
33.2
148.2
11.1
51.3
151.1
25.6
82
212
Matias MaccelliNYI · L
43.9
15.1
28.7
114.5
9.1
24.2
19.5
15.8
82
213
Jonathan DrouinSTL · L
43.8
10.3
33.5
113.0
13.8
31.3
36.1
23.0
82
214
Kaapo KakkoSEA · R
43.7
15.6
28.1
110.4
7.5
47.8
21.6
24.2
82
215
Conor GarlandCBJ · R
43.6
16.7
27.0
170.1
11.4
51.9
41.7
41.1
82
216
Trevor MooreLAK · L
43.4
19.3
24.1
197.8
3.9
83.0
43.2
15.2
82
217
Torey KrugSTL · D
43.4
6.6
36.7
166.8
16.3
65.0
111.8
44.7
82
218
Brandon MontourSEA · D
43.3
14.9
28.4
221.4
13.2
98.9
97.7
65.3
82
219
Christian DvorakPHI · C
43.1
15.2
28.0
133.2
3.8
48.8
61.2
26.0
82
220
Jake NeighboursSTL · L
43.0
20.1
22.9
115.0
10.2
175.7
46.8
51.6
82
221
Devon ToewsCOL · D
43.0
8.1
34.9
143.6
3.4
47.0
109.2
29.5
82
222
Collin GrafSJS · R
42.9
19.4
23.6
115.6
2.7
82.2
47.5
13.5
82
223
Gabe PerreaultNYR · R
42.9
19.0
23.9
120.4
9.5
41.8
36.4
16.4
82
224
Cole PerfettiWPG · C
42.8
16.5
26.3
157.0
10.4
69.0
39.2
21.1
82
225
Jeff SkinnerSJS · L
42.7
21.2
21.5
182.5
8.9
44.7
23.9
34.0
82
226
Egor ChinakhovPIT · R
42.6
21.1
21.5
159.0
6.4
72.8
35.6
11.6
82
227
Bobby McMannSEA · C
42.3
25.6
16.8
184.4
5.6
172.7
27.3
46.0
82
228
Alex PietrangeloVGK · D
42.3
7.0
35.3
160.3
6.8
59.6
180.5
25.6
82
229
Blake ColemanMIN · L
42.3
21.6
20.7
202.1
2.4
167.5
58.3
54.7
82
230
Michael BuntingNSH · L
42.3
17.9
24.4
153.6
13.9
62.0
24.3
48.3
82
231
Alex LaferriereLAK · R
42.2
18.5
23.7
200.3
4.8
207.7
45.7
22.4
82
232
Noah CatesPHI · L
41.9
16.1
25.8
123.0
6.7
100.3
54.2
28.0
82
233
Morgan FrostCGY · C
41.8
18.6
23.2
144.1
14.3
64.8
48.7
25.9
82
234
Tommy NovakPIT · C
41.5
16.8
24.7
130.0
8.8
14.8
34.9
16.9
82
235
Andrew CoppDET · C
41.4
11.5
29.9
118.0
6.2
37.4
59.3
22.4
82
236
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
41.2
16.6
24.6
195.2
4.6
41.3
35.5
23.6
82
237
Mattias EkholmEDM · D
41.0
8.2
32.8
147.6
4.4
75.5
121.9
35.8
82
238
Jack RoslovicTOR · C
40.9
20.3
20.6
152.5
5.5
47.4
32.7
16.4
82
239
Simon HolmstromNYI · R
40.8
19.3
21.6
98.9
4.1
20.9
50.3
13.7
82
240
Oliver BjorkstrandNYR · R
40.7
16.4
24.3
153.4
14.6
83.1
36.7
15.9
82
241
Evander KaneVAN · L
40.7
19.4
21.3
209.0
6.5
191.5
31.6
114.5
82
242
Sean CouturierPHI · C
40.5
13.1
27.4
150.4
2.8
98.3
44.5
37.0
82
243
Justin FaulkDET · D
40.5
11.6
28.8
154.8
10.3
90.4
131.6
42.4
82
244
Max DomiTOR · C
40.3
12.0
28.4
124.3
7.6
41.7
31.7
100.7
82
245
Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
40.3
12.2
28.1
166.8
10.7
38.6
163.3
62.8
82
246
Bowen ByramCHI · D
40.2
11.5
28.8
111.8
5.1
70.5
99.9
51.3
82
247
David PerronDET · L
40.2
18.5
21.6
138.4
13.3
118.9
26.0
47.6
82
248
Dawson MercerNJD · C
40.1
20.3
19.9
149.8
6.8
38.3
50.0
28.3
82
249
Alex KillornANA · L
40.0
18.6
21.3
150.5
8.3
76.7
28.7
42.4
82
250
Tyson FoersterPHI · R
40.0
26.1
13.9
156.4
8.3
97.5
58.0
50.5
82

No consistency figure for points: it did not clear the nightly split-half-vs-Poisson gate. The gate withholds a figure both when a stat is measurably no better than chance and when the evidence is too split to call, and those are not separable from here — so read this as no published measure, not as a finding that points is inconsistent. Sort by another stat to see it where it holds. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.