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Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

Projections

Every headline stat per skater — over a full regular season, ranked league-wide by shots.

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Each player's recency-weighted per-game rate — from 5 seasons of real games, recent games weighted more (the weighting is backtested) — × their team's scheduled games in the window. Computed overnight, then only read — this page never recalculates a projection. Availability is not projected: Proj GP is the team's schedule, not a forecast of how many games the player dresses for, and injuries, scratches and trades are not modelled.

How well does projection ordering hold? View the ordering study

897 skaters · sorted by shots

#
Skater
PTS
G
A
SOG
PPP
HIT
BLK
PIM
Proj GP
51
Jordan KyrouWSH · R
61.0
27.9
33.1
221.3
17.2
28.0
32.8
15.1
82
52
Sam ReinhartFLA · C
80.2
40.0
40.2
221.0
29.4
92.4
61.8
21.4
82
53
Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
58.7
22.9
35.9
220.9
17.9
40.7
110.5
38.0
82
54
John TavaresTOR · C
71.8
33.2
38.5
220.3
21.7
98.1
36.3
35.4
82
55
Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
75.5
19.9
55.6
220.2
24.7
102.5
102.7
78.6
82
56
Evan BouchardEDM · D
82.5
18.2
64.3
219.0
30.5
44.0
104.5
31.0
82
57
Bryan RustPIT · R
70.4
32.3
38.1
217.8
22.8
57.9
69.7
28.1
82
58
Rickard RakellPIT · R
62.6
30.0
32.6
216.3
18.4
115.1
60.8
13.9
82
59
Mikko RantanenDAL · R
97.2
33.4
63.8
215.3
39.4
65.1
48.5
86.3
82
60
Patrick KaneCHI · R
70.1
22.5
47.6
214.7
26.5
23.4
27.4
18.9
82
61
Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
55.0
23.0
32.0
214.6
16.8
66.3
121.8
60.9
82
62
Andrei SvechnikovCAR · R
65.5
29.0
36.5
214.3
24.9
190.8
22.8
77.5
82
63
Brad MarchandFLA · L
74.0
33.9
40.1
213.4
25.3
88.2
33.2
79.7
82
64
Martin NecasCOL · C
87.0
30.5
56.5
213.1
24.6
85.6
25.6
28.7
82
65
Nikolaj EhlersCAR · L
71.2
27.9
43.3
212.9
23.7
37.4
30.6
19.6
82
66
Nico HischierNJD · C
70.3
31.3
39.0
212.0
23.6
56.7
62.0
23.6
82
67
Jonathan MarchessaultNSH · C
53.5
23.6
29.9
211.5
16.2
97.5
19.0
38.4
82
68
Mika ZibanejadNYR · C
74.6
29.3
45.3
211.3
30.8
79.4
50.4
18.8
82
69
Alex TuchWSH · R
66.5
32.7
33.8
210.8
10.1
91.1
96.2
52.6
82
70
Steven StamkosNSH · C
67.4
37.7
29.7
209.8
27.3
86.6
41.2
51.6
82
71
Tyler ToffoliSJS · C
54.4
25.6
28.8
209.2
16.6
58.1
28.6
13.6
82
72
Evander KaneVAN · L
40.7
19.4
21.3
209.0
6.5
191.5
31.6
114.5
82
73
Viktor ArvidssonDET · L
54.1
25.3
28.8
207.1
9.8
36.8
41.5
28.9
82
74
Sebastian AhoCAR · C
78.7
30.0
48.7
206.8
25.6
78.6
29.0
45.5
82
75
Anders LeeUTA · L
45.2
22.5
22.7
206.3
8.7
113.1
41.0
46.0
82
76
Wyatt JohnstonDAL · C
73.8
37.9
35.9
204.8
30.3
59.9
48.3
26.6
82
77
Adam FantilliCBJ · C
56.1
25.7
30.4
204.5
9.5
127.9
51.8
31.0
82
78
Troy TerryANA · R
68.6
24.3
44.4
203.7
14.3
10.1
26.2
19.7
82
79
Jake DeBruskVAN · L
45.5
24.9
20.6
202.5
20.3
88.0
40.8
15.6
82
80
Blake ColemanMIN · L
42.3
21.6
20.7
202.1
2.4
167.5
58.3
54.7
82
81
Quinn HughesMIN · D
87.4
12.8
74.6
201.2
35.1
14.9
84.4
35.2
82
82
Beckett SenneckeANA · R
57.4
24.3
33.0
200.8
13.9
97.7
24.0
57.4
82
83
Aleksander BarkovFLA · C
85.8
25.7
60.1
200.5
31.3
120.0
66.3
21.0
82
84
Alex LaferriereLAK · R
42.2
18.5
23.7
200.3
4.8
207.7
45.7
22.4
82
85
Dylan CozensOTT · C
53.7
23.7
30.0
200.0
20.0
192.9
30.5
58.6
82
86
Jared McCannSEA · L
62.5
28.6
33.9
199.5
19.0
56.5
40.0
20.8
82
87
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
71.5
19.7
51.8
199.0
20.3
39.4
51.6
48.3
82
88
Trevor MooreLAK · L
43.4
19.3
24.1
197.8
3.9
83.0
43.2
15.2
82
89
Kyle PalmieriNYI · C
51.7
23.7
28.0
197.4
12.9
71.3
40.9
28.5
82
90
Frank VatranoANA · R
35.2
18.7
16.6
197.0
6.5
145.1
61.0
72.0
82
91
Brock NelsonCOL · C
60.8
30.0
30.9
195.6
13.8
44.9
60.4
33.4
82
92
Valeri NichushkinCBJ · R
58.7
26.7
32.0
195.5
10.3
89.7
36.0
22.7
82
93
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
41.2
16.6
24.6
195.2
4.6
41.3
35.5
23.6
82
94
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
65.2
14.7
50.5
194.9
23.4
28.2
81.3
30.8
82
95
Leo CarlssonANA · C
65.8
28.1
37.8
194.6
16.3
26.3
35.3
27.1
82
96
Matt CoronatoCGY · R
45.6
19.8
25.8
194.3
15.3
28.2
28.2
29.6
82
97
Evgeni MalkinPIT · C
75.0
25.5
49.5
194.0
26.6
38.3
36.9
74.1
82
98
Ryan HartmanMIN · R
45.5
21.9
23.5
193.0
8.2
80.4
82.8
74.1
82
99
Jesper BrattNJD · L
76.5
23.0
53.6
192.9
24.1
74.9
31.2
13.4
82
100
Patrik LaineMTL · L
52.6
27.5
25.1
192.3
23.1
42.8
39.4
26.5
82

No consistency figure for shots: it did not clear the nightly split-half-vs-Poisson gate. The gate withholds a figure both when a stat is measurably no better than chance and when the evidence is too split to call, and those are not separable from here — so read this as no published measure, not as a finding that shots is inconsistent. Sort by another stat to see it where it holds. Measured 2026-08-21. The nightly job has not refreshed this since — it is the last completed measurement, not a current one.