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Mon, Jan 5, 2026

Archived sheet

5 of 5 games had posted player lines

Archived Blocked shots

5 games · 86 props. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.

The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured

Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(BLK = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.

No line posted.

Sean Durzi
Sean Durzi UTA · D

No line posted.

Adam Fox
Adam Fox NYR · D

No line posted.

Will Cuylle
Will Cuylle NYR · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Nick Schmaltz
Nick Schmaltz UTA · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Lawson Crouse
Lawson Crouse UTA · F

No line posted.

JJ Peterka
JJ Peterka UTA · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Jacob Trouba
Jacob Trouba ANA · D

No line posted.

John Carlson
John Carlson WSH · D

No line posted.

No line posted.

Rasmus Sandin
Rasmus Sandin WSH · D

No line posted.

No line posted.

Dylan Strome
Dylan Strome WSH · F

No line posted.

Troy Terry
Troy Terry ANA · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Leo Carlsson
Leo Carlsson ANA · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Chris Kreider
Chris Kreider ANA · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Alex Ovechkin
Alex Ovechkin WSH · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Ryan Leonard
Ryan Leonard WSH · F

No line posted.

Moritz Seider
Moritz Seider DET · D

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Thomas Chabot
Thomas Chabot OTT · D

No line posted.

Dylan Larkin
Dylan Larkin DET · F

No line posted.

Lucas Raymond
Lucas Raymond DET · F

No line posted.

Tim Stützle
Tim Stützle OTT · F

No line posted.

Patrick Kane
Patrick Kane DET · F

No line posted.

Andrew Copp
Andrew Copp DET · F

No line posted.

Brady Tkachuk
Brady Tkachuk OTT · F

No line posted.

Shane Pinto
Shane Pinto OTT · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Dylan Cozens
Dylan Cozens OTT · F

No line posted.

Claude Giroux
Claude Giroux OTT · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Vince Dunn
Vince Dunn SEA · D

No line posted.

No line posted.

Eeli Tolvanen
Eeli Tolvanen SEA · F

No line posted.

Matty Beniers
Matty Beniers SEA · F

No line posted.

Jordan Eberle
Jordan Eberle SEA · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Joel Farabee
Joel Farabee CGY · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Nazem Kadri
Nazem Kadri CGY · F

No line posted.

Shane Wright
Shane Wright SEA · F

No line posted.

Blake Coleman
Blake Coleman CGY · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Jared McCann
Jared McCann SEA · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Matt Coronato
Matt Coronato CGY · F

No line posted.

Kaapo Kakko
Kaapo Kakko SEA · F

No line posted.

Morgan Frost
Morgan Frost CGY · F

No line posted.

Brock Faber
Brock Faber MIN · D

No line posted.

Brandt Clarke
Brandt Clarke LAK · D

No line posted.

Quinn Hughes
Quinn Hughes MIN · D

No line posted.

Drew Doughty
Drew Doughty LAK · D

No line posted.

Ryan Hartman
Ryan Hartman MIN · F

No line posted.

Anze Kopitar
Anze Kopitar LAK · F

No line posted.

Adrian Kempe
Adrian Kempe LAK · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Matt Boldy
Matt Boldy MIN · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Danila Yurov
Danila Yurov MIN · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

Kevin Fiala
Kevin Fiala LAK · F

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

No line posted.

Corey Perry
Corey Perry LAK · F

No line posted.

NHL · Shots on goal

Distributions, not picks.

OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.

They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.

The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line

Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.