Thu, Oct 9, 2025
Archived sheet
7 of 14 games had posted player lines
Archived Assists
14 games · 120 players · 67 posted A lines. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
14 games · 120 players · 67 posted A lines · sorted by projection
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(A = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
Chicago Blackhawks at Boston Bruins
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
1.1
P(over)
65%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.7
P(over)
49%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
37%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
37%
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
22%
No line posted.
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
41%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
39%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
19%
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
Montréal Canadiens at Detroit Red Wings
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
22%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
No line posted.
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
20%
No line posted.
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
15%
No line posted.
No line posted.
Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning
7:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Philadelphia Flyers at Florida Panthers
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
37%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
26%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
22%
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.5
P(over)
40%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
33%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
No line posted.
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
21%
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes
7:30 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues
8:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Nashville Predators
8:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
8:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Utah Mammoth at Colorado Avalanche
9:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks
10:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
32%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
31%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
30%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
23%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
22%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.2
P(over)
18%
Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks
10:00 PM ETGame page
Line
0.5
Proj
0.6
P(over)
46%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
34%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
33%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.4
P(over)
33%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
29%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
28%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
27%
Line
0.5
Proj
0.3
P(over)
24%
Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken
10:00 PM ETGame pageNo props in this market for this game.
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.