Mon, Oct 13, 2025
Archived sheet
10 of 10 games had posted player lines
Archived Hits
10 games · 154 players · 0 posted HITS lines. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
10 games · 154 players · 0 posted HITS lines · sorted by projection
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(HITS = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres
12:30 PM ETGame page
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Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins
1:00 PM ETGame page
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Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators
1:00 PM ETGame page
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Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders
1:00 PM ETGame page
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Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs
2:00 PM ETGame page
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Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers
7:00 PM ETGame page
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New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets
7:00 PM ETGame page
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St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks
7:30 PM ETGame page
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Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild
8:00 PM ETGame page
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Utah Mammoth at Chicago Blackhawks
8:30 PM ETGame page
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NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.