Tue, Mar 3, 2026
Archived sheet
11 of 11 games had posted player lines
Archived Blocked shots
11 games · 283 props. These are the lines as they stood on that date — not current, and not a forecast for any game being played now.
The model has not beaten the Pinnacle closing line: shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games. How this was measured
11 games · 283 BLK props · sorted by projection
Line is the book's posted threshold · Proj is the model's mean · P(over) is the modelled probability of finishing above the line. Each bar is P(BLK = k) — the whole distribution, not a pick. Research context, not a recommendation.
Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
1.5
Proj
1.9
P(over)
53%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.7
P(over)
50%
No line posted.
Line
1.5
Proj
1.5
P(over)
44%
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Vegas Golden Knights at Buffalo Sabres
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
1.5
Proj
2.1
P(over)
60%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.9
P(over)
53%
No line posted.
Line
1.5
Proj
1.7
P(over)
48%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.7
P(over)
47%
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Florida Panthers at New Jersey Devils
7:00 PM ETGame page
No line posted.
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Line
1.5
Proj
1.5
P(over)
44%
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Utah Mammoth at Washington Capitals
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
2.5
Proj
2.2
P(over)
38%
Line
1.5
Proj
1.8
P(over)
52%
No line posted.
Line
1.5
Proj
1.6
P(over)
46%
No line posted.
No line posted.
No line posted.
Line
1.5
Proj
1.4
P(over)
40%
No line posted.
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Nashville Predators at Columbus Blue Jackets
7:00 PM ETGame page
Line
1.5
Proj
2.0
P(over)
57%
No line posted.
Line
1.5
Proj
1.5
P(over)
44%
No line posted.
Line
1.5
Proj
1.4
P(over)
39%
No line posted.
No line posted.
Line
1.5
Proj
1.1
P(over)
31%
No line posted.
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Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets
8:00 PM ETGame page
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Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames
9:00 PM ETGame page
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Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers
9:00 PM ETGame page
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Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild
9:30 PM ETGame page
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Colorado Avalanche at Anaheim Ducks
10:00 PM ETGame page
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Montréal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks
10:00 PM ETGame page
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NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions, not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
They were measured against the Pinnacle closing line, which they do not beat — shots-on-goal ROI −0.0709 [−0.0932, −0.0467] per unit over 7,171 bets in a 2025-26 backtest of 512 games, and the model's disagreement with the market carries no signal a paired test can separate from betting the other side instead. That is the measured result, reported rather than buried.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modelled probability. Positional, never a verdict.